Bears Break Fibon Three Lines of Defense

FIBON 今天一口气跌破三条线 (1) 颈线，(2) 支撑 和 (3) 上升趋势线。跌破颈线意味着空头的开始，再破支撑(或者是起涨点) 就表示头部确立；而且今天的日K 还要跌破这个大上升趋势线 (周线)，借用诗魂大大在第八届的Investalks 聚会介绍名词，这里就应该是死亡交叉。

我认为，现在FIBON 这个趋势已经转空，预测的跌幅会在大约0.49。

GADANG, End-of-day Analysis (Updated)

GADANG 虽然我不曾参与，但也是我观察名单其中之一的股票。这个季度的业绩不理想而已，但是股价却可以跌成这样，由此可见大户就是这样翻脸就翻脸。今天就很想分享这个盘后分析，一来提醒自己，二来以后说不定可以避开类此的地雷。

目前我的看法，像这样带大量的跳空下跌，应该很难可以在短期内回到3.00 以上的价位，而且说不定还可以再跌，毕竟在买进之前是要搞清楚跌下来的是糖子还是刀子。

如果再拉更长远的图 (如下)，一旦月周日线的波段涨幅都符合了，接下来的就是空头趋势的来临。

更新在Investalks 专区的第102#交流

更新在Investalks 专区的第104#交流

AAX Is Escape From Turbulence!?

AAX 终于冲出了气流层！
基本上就如之前文章中预期会在0.375 - 0.41 之间横盘大概一个月半，然后才做出多空表态。然而，就在横盘结束后，股价开始缓慢的往上盘，静静的做出了强势表态。今天的这一根带量突破是属于多头攻击，也就是强势表态，支撑目前就来到了0.41，而现在接下来就要看AAX 如何一步步去回补先前的跳空缺口了。技术上，起涨点 0.41 是不能跌破，否则整个上升趋势就会被破坏掉。


AAX is escape from turbulence finally!
Basically, this is as expected in previous post about AAX that either bull or bear trend will only declare after a sideways between 0.375 - 0.41 for one and the half month. So, after end of the sideways, the stock price is going up slowly and the trend is shown getting stronger. Today breakthrough with volume is consider as a bull attack, and support is come to 0.41, now next step is to see how AAX to cover the previous shortfall gap. Technically, 0.41 is cannot be broken, otherwise the uptrend will be destroyed.

  

TA ANN, Bull-Bear War

多空交战，惨不忍睹，空方在上个星期五就一口气杀破多头支撑 3.57 和第二道下降趋势线，然后停在底部支撑点 3.45，这一下子将整个走势都破坏掉。目前支撑来到3.45，也就是底部突破后的支撑点。如今走势很熊，还出现了一个假突破；在操作上，由于之前已经减码，所以在多空趋势还没有明朗之前，我依然会持续观察。


Bull-Bear war is on TA ANN, bear side attack and break below the support 3.60 and line (b) in last Friday, then stopped at 3.45 which is the base support, so the whole trend are destroyed. Currently, 3.45 is the anchor support, which is also a breakthrough point from the base. Now the trend is smell bear, and a fake signal is appear too; from operation wise, since I've underweight before, so I will still continue monitoring and without any action until a clearer situation is observed.  

TA ANN Is Counterattack!

TA ANN 漂亮反击！
今天完全突破了第二道下降趋势线，或可以视为做了三角收敛的有效突破，如果这次是属于多头攻击讯号，那么就不会再跌破支撑或回到第二道下降趋势线以下。目前，下一个的挑战就是压力线，但是只要可以越过3.68，要越过压力线就应该不会是一个问题，至于波段涨幅，我想等到越过了3.68 才来估计吧。

另一方面，最近棕油期货的走势和TA ANN 好像有点脱离，前者还是维持在横盘。但无论如何，我会持续观察。


TA ANN is counterattack!

Today, broke the second track of downtrend line completely, or may consider as a effective breakthrough from breakthrough triangular convergence, if this is the bullish attack signal, then it will not fall below the support or return below the second track of downtrend line. Currently, the next challenge is the resistance line, as long as surpass 3.68, then to cross the resistance line should not be a problem, but I think I won't put target price estimation yet until 3.68 is surpassed.


On the other hand, the recent trend of Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Plantation Index (FBMPALMOIL) and TA ANN seems a bit off, as of FBMPALMOIL is still remained at the former sideways. But anyway, I will continue to observe.

TUNEPRO Is Ready To Adjust

TUNEPRO 从27/9 脱离了短期的上升线，7/10 跌破压力线，然后10/10 跌破了主要上升线。虽然今天稍微收在主要上升线，但是却整个的走势开始呈现疲弱，而大概1.56 会是一个重要的支撑，一旦跌破就会转入另一个盘整区间。

从月线来观察，TUNEPRO 在完毕了第三个时间框后的那一周却没有如预期般的上涨，反而是开高走底，在趋势上我认为是一个转弱讯号，而基于我并不是买在低档区加上外围的风险，所以在操作上我选择套利了结。虽然如此，目前我会认为这是一个调整行情而多过是一个空头行情的开始。所以，日后我会尝试在适合的价位再重新持有。



TUNEPRO is move out of the short-term ascending line at 27/9, fell below the resistance line at 7/10, and then fell below the major uptrend line at 10/10. Although today is closed slightly in the major uptrend line, but overall the trend is seem weakness, and now 1.56 will be an important support, once break below will be transferred to another sideways. 


Observation from monthly chart, TUNEPRO did not rise as expected after finished the third symmetrical time frame, however, it open high and close low at the end, so this is a weak signal to me, therefore I decide to arbitrage due to my buy price is not within the safety margin plus the external risk. Even so, I still think this is an adjustment trend more than a downtrend. So, I will try to buy back in a suitable timing in the future.

TA ANN, Bear Attack

追踪了TA ANN 那么的一段时间，最后居然在 7/10 一根直接破坏了上升线和(a) 线，毕竟也是需要遵守市场的方向，我当天就马上减码了。如今TA ANN 徘徊在支撑3.45，而3.45 是底部的一个突破点，所以是非常重要的支撑，一旦跌破就会进入下一个横盘区间。其实，如果再往前做观察，可以注意得到在六个交易日后的时间框对称马上出现了弱势表态，这可以做为一个减码（或卖出）讯号，以作为更好的风险管控；这也同样的出现在TUNEPRO 近期的走势，而我也即将会在下一篇分享。

另外，从棕油期货的走势，大略可以看得出TA ANN 如何被牵动着。如今棕油期货是在走向一个三角收敛，如果不幸跌破，那么我想TA ANN 也会跟着破支撑。无论如何，这个答案应该会在这两个礼拜内揭晓，毕竟拖得太久也不会是一件好事。



TA ANN has been tracking for some time, but it fell below both line (a) & ascending line at 7/10, then I immediate reduce my position on TA ANN at the same day since it is a must to comply with the market direction. Now, TA ANN support is hovering at 3.45, and 3.45 is a crucial support because it is a breakthrough point from the base, if once broken it will enter to the next sideways. In fact, if do observation in the previous trend, we can notice there is a symmetrical time frame of six trading days, and TA ANN trend is go weak after end of the time frame, which can be used as a signal to reduce TA ANN position, as a better risk management; this is also appear in the TUNEPRO recent trend which I will share in my next post soon.

Moreover, from the trend of Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Plantation Index, probably we can see how the TA ANN is affected. So, the Palm Oil Plantation Index are now moving toward a convergence triangle, if unfortunately broken, then I think TA ANN will break it support too. Anyway, the answer will unfold within this two weeks, because it is not a good thing too drag too long.

TA ANN, Back To Fighting

近期的金融市场波动不断，一样也导致了个股的走势起伏不定。
自从 TA ANN 不带量的站上了3.57 后，只是维持了六个交易日就跌回3.57 以下，如今的支撑来到之前的起涨点 3.51，这就如我在之前所提到的需要多注意。现在，观察点在上升线和 (a) 线，如果上升线被跌破，就意味了走势的轨道即将改变，同时间在 3.51 的起涨点也被消灭掉了。所以，近这几个交易日将会是一个关键，一旦发生，我就会开始减码。

The recent financial market volatility is continued, as also led to the individual stocks fluctuated.
Since TA ANN stand above 3.57 without volume, but it just successful maintain in six trading day before dropped back to below 3.57, now the support is came to 3.51, and this is what I've mentioned in previous post that the extra precaution is require. Now, the observation point is on the ascending line and line (a), if the ascending line is broken, it means the trend is going to change, at the same time the attack signal at 3.51 has also been wiped out too. So, these few coming trading day will be very crucial, once happen I will start to reduce my TA ANN position.

TA ANN, Come On!

TA ANN 今天终于突破了下降趋势线 (a)，也意外的一口气站上了3.57 收在3.60，回补了13/9 和 21/9的空方攻击。这也许是主力的信心在FED 利率决策会议出炉后，扫除了市场的不确定性而开始回稳了；此外，也加上棕油期货走强的因素从而带动这次的涨幅。但是，唯一的不足就是不带量，也许这个日后需要多注意。

在技术上，既然站得上就别破线，目前支撑提升到3.57，或则保守点支撑可以设在3.52。操作方面我依然是维持手上的部位，不会做任何的加码动作，直到突破3.70。


TA ANN finally broke the downtrend line (a), surprisingly stood above 3.57 and close at 3.60, thus covering the short side attack on 13/9 and 21/9. Perhaps, big player confident is regain through the uncertainty is removed after the FED interest rate decision is released; besides, the strong trend of Bursa Malaysia Palm Oil Plantation Index is an additional factor too. But the only downside is without high volume, probably an extra precaution is require in the future.

Technically, support 3.57 cannot be destroy, or support at 3.52 for more conservative. In Operation wise, I still maintain my current stock position, then overweight once breakthrough 3.70.

Related
TA ANN Bull Run Is Starting Up?!
Is TA ANN U Turn?
TA ANN, My Opinion
TA ANN, My Update

Good Or Bad KAWAN? Will Know After a Breakout Of 4.00

好“朋友”还是坏“朋友”？近期KAWAN 的走势看起来很强劲，自5/9 突破了下降趋势线 (a)，回测在 3.73 价位，然后今天突破前高 （不以上影线来测）收在 3.93。保守预测，目前应该会在 3.89 附近做个小整理区间，最后突破压力线展开多头旅程。

在操作上，5/9 的突破点和回测点都是我的进场时间点，支撑就设在3.726，然后等待最后的突破在4.00 之处做加码动作。然而，必须注意3.975，以防到达了波段涨幅后，“朋友” 翻脸走人。 所以，主力是我们的好“朋友”还是坏“朋友”？ 看来只有突破了4.00 才可以确认。 


Good Or Bad KAWAN? KAWAN trend seems very strong recently, since 5/9 breakthrough the downtrend line (a), then back tested at 3.73, and today surpass previous high (not measure the shadow) by closed at 3.93. Conservatively forecast, there should be a minor range of consolidation zone around 3.89, and then breakthrough the final resistance to start the bullish journey.

In operation, 5/9 breakthrough and back-tested both is the buy timing for me, and set the support at 3.726, then overweight after the final resistance 4.00 is breakthrough. However, we must be pay extra precaution at 3.975, just in case KAWAN make a U-turn after the target price is reached. So, whether big player is our Good Or Bad KAWAN? It seems like only can confirm after a breakout of 4.00.

TA ANN, My Update

今天的TA ANN 收得让我有点失望，不止突破不了下降趋势线 (a)，而且还要一天就跌破了从14/9 一连三天的推升段，然而这次是否能再重演1/9 和 2/9 时的翻转讯号？ 那就必须要看明天主力的心情了。

在技术上，目前的走势的确有点弱势，但还不至于断定转为空头趋势，只是又再度的进入了横盘状态如果一旦跌破3.44。在操作上，如果出现了小破线，都需要特别注意部位的调整以确保组合还是在安全边际的范围内，毕竟安全第一。


Today TA ANN closing makes me a little disappointment, not only could not break the downward trend line (a), but also fall below the short term support 3.48, which is the push-up segment since 14/9, however, whether the reversal signal (like 1/9 & 2/9) will be repeated again? Then, we will see by tomorrow.


Technically, the current trend was a little weak, but bearish trend is still early to judge; once again, it will entered into sideways if fell below 3.44. In operation wise, once a break line, then an extra precaution is require to adjust the position to ensure the margin of safety is fulfilled, because of safety first.


Related
TA ANN Bull Run Is Starting Up?!
Is TA ANN U Turn?
TA ANN, My Opinion