Tuesday, 29 November 2016

PADINI Is On Sales



基本上我8月中就开始看空了,当时还放了“PADINI, Here Comes a Bear”这样的一个标题。早在九月初已经出现了翻转讯号,就是拖了两个月的时间,在23/11 跌破上升趋势线,然后在25/11 微量收高。那时侯就知道星期一PADINI 开始大减价,只是有点意外的是减价的幅度最高竟然来到8%。

由于一口气跌破了颈线2.68,下一个支撑是大概2.57,短期压力就在2.76;如果可以重新站上颈线,也需要横盘在下降趋势线和颈线之间一段时间,届时才看看行情如何。然而,上涨无量下跌带量,所以我个人对后面的走势不会乐观。

补充一点,虽然我对后面的走势不乐观,但从长期的角度来看,我认为这个会比较是长天期的大波动调整,而多过是一个空头格局。

Saturday, 26 November 2016

TA ANN Is Riding On The Next Theme


16/11 的一根开高走底,基于周边环境的影响而导致一连4 个交易日的下跌,然而我依然维持部位,因为分析告诉我答案会在周线里。这一连4 个交易日的下跌,让TA ANN 跌回关键支撑之下(正确来说是第二关键支撑),之后就在整理区的起涨点找到支撑,开始就逐步往上爬直到今天重新站上第二关键支撑。

(1) 9/11 的美国总统大选的大利空后,不跌反涨。
(2) 底部规模远大于头部。

以上的这两个因素而让我确定答案就在周线里。

然后,再配合(3) 回测起涨点支撑和(4)周K 也正式收在第二关键支撑之上,就这四点让我决定再度加码在3.70。目前来看,日和周K 线都已经站在第二关键支撑之上,下一个需要观察的就是月K 的表现了,也就是下个礼拜 28, 29 & 30 的交易日能否维持在第二关键支撑之上;短线压力在3.85。

TA ANN is open high close low at 16/11 and then continue to close low in the four subsequent trading day due to the uncertainty from money market, and this make TA ANN is fell below the key support again (to be exact, it should the second key support), until it found support at 3.63 which is the breakout point from the previous consolidation zone. After that, TA ANN is gradually going up and stood above the second key support again.

(1) TA ANN is resist to fell after the big surprise from the US Presidential Election.
(2) Base structure is more bigger than head structure.

These 2 factor determined the answer is from weekly chart. Then, with the (3) back tested at support 3.63, and (4) TA ANN is stand above the second key support in weekly chart. Therefore, I am decided to overweight again at 3.70. So far, the next challenge will be in monthly chart, which is for the three following days in next week whether still maintain above the second key support; short term resistance is at 3.85.

在技术上,我认为只要日和周K 都站稳在第二关键支撑之上,那么3.70 以下的形态就变成了一个底部,以支撑TA ANN 在第二阶段的走势。这个第二阶段的走势将会游走在第二支撑和压力区之间(保守估计大概半年之久),在月线图会看得更明显 (a 和 c 之间),一旦可以突破层层压力,那么就是一个多头行情的开始了。

操作上,就我常说的回测支撑永远都是最好的买点,如果想要买进的投资者,可以等待回测第二关键支撑时才做进场的动作。无论如何,都请看好支撑和压力,进场前也必须了解自身的风险承担能力。

Technically, I think as long as the candlestick from daily and weekly chart is still stand above the second key support, then the structure below 3.70 will become a foundation,  to support TA ANN trend in phase 2. The phase 2 will be moving in the between of second key support & pressure zone, this will be more obvious in monthly chart (between a & c line). So, bullish is expected if successful breakout from pressure zone.

Operation wise, I often said, retracement is always the best buy timing. Anyway, must always eye on the support and resistance, and please understand the risk capacity before entering the market.

周线图




月线图



以下更新:

股价反应未来,在16/11 开始的一连四个交易日下跌除了周边环境的影响,也许是连带反应了即将在 21/11 推出的第三季度财报会比去年同期的EPS 来得差(下跌了大概23%);然而在22/11 就开始止跌上涨,这也反应了TA ANN 的利空出尽,市场对TA ANN 的未来开始乐观,毕竟这个第三季度的财报在目前来说表现也不算差。

下图是 FCPO的周线图。
在2016 年初走势开始突破了长天期下降趋势,然后7月份回测支撑成功,第一关键支撑确立。随后在八,九月分虽然一度失败挑战压力线 1,然而在11 月初一根长K 直接挑战成功(注:在月线图上,压力线1是一个头部颈线)。如今压力线 1 成为第二关键支撑,而目前短期支撑在2910,涨幅目标可以去到大概3221。

基于以上这两点,让我确定了之前对TA ANN 的看法和布局是正确的。但无论如何,一旦到达了目标价格后就必须小心回调的压力。

Updated:

The future is always reflected in stock price, perhaps, TA ANN sliding down in last week is reflect to the coming release of third quarter report is as not expected, which is the EPS is reduce if comparing to the same quarter last year. However, rebound is started at 22/11, this may reflect all the bad news is running out, and market is optimistic to TA ANN future, in fact, the third quarter report is not really that bad too.

Observe from FCPO chart, in early of 2016, trend is began to break through the long-term decline line, and then it back-tested successfully in July then the first key support line is establish. Although it fail to challenge the resistance line 1 in August and September, however, a nice breakout in November (resistance line 1 is actually a neckline if observe in monthly chart), So, now the second key support is establish, short term support at 2910 and target price is 3221. 

Therefore, based on these 2 factor I will think my analysis is still valid, but no matter how, please be aware from the pressure of retracement once the target price is reached.


Thursday, 24 November 2016

The TOP GLOVE Script


基于大环境的不稳定性,就先看日线走势以确定是否多还是空。

Due to the uncertainty from global environment, better look at the daily trend to determine trend direction.

我就直接针对目前的走势给一个结论,长期走势的横盘整理还没有结束,但是短期会有一个小波段的赚副。

So, let me put my conclusion first, sideways in long term, but there might be a small earning in short term.

横盘整理的目的就是要突破层层压力线,以现在的走势来看,应该还要盘多一段时间才会有表态(确立突破压力线 5.50)。目前来说有短期压力和支撑分别在 5.34和5.06,如果是强势横盘那就会盘在5.06 之上,最理想的是围绕在A 线来做移动;反之,如果是弱势横盘,那么就会盘在 5.06 之下,而4.79 是关键支撑。

Sideways is to overcome all the resistance level, so it should need to have a sideways for quite some time to breakthrough the resistance at 5.5 if according from the current trend. So, the short term support and resistance is at 5.06 & 5.34 respectively; ideally, it should moving above the line A (or above 5.06) if it going to develop a strong trend, otherwise, it would be a weak trend. Anyway, key support is at 4.79. 

操作上,如果是看多,可以在5.06,5.12,5.20 这个价位布局,因为这个是第二阶段进场时机,短期目标大概5.70 附近;到达了后会遇到空头的强大攻击,压力变支撑,而5.50 就是强势支撑。所以,剧情就大概是这样了,至于会不会出现大行情,就等到突破了压力线时再来进一步的分析。

Operational wise, 5.06, 5.12 & 5.20 is a good buy-in position if go for long, then short term target is 5.70, but be aware of bear attack when reach the surrounding of the target price, then 5.50 is the next level support. 

Well, this is what I think for the TOP GLOVE trend, but let see how far TOP GLOVE can go further after it reach 5.50 successfully.

以下是分析更新:
  1. A 线的由来,而为什么我会认为长期横盘,短期有小波段赚幅。
  2. 如果想要作多,5.12 是重要的多头支撑,理想是盘在A 线之上,如果跌破就是回到弱势横盘格局,关键支撑依然是4.79。
  3. 我个人保守认为最好是等到可以站稳在5.34,才做进场决定。

Below here is the updated analysis:
  1. How I define line A, and why I will think sideways in long term, but a small earning in short term.
  2. 5.12 is the important support for those who wanted go for long, and ideally the trend is moving above the line A. But, the weak trend still the same if break the support, and key support is remain at 4.79.
  3. Conservatively, I will think to enter when it stand above 5.34 steadily. 




以下是周线图。

Below here is the weekly chart.


原文来自这里

Here is the original post.

追踪更新:
TOP GLOVE 剧情追踪 (01/12/2016)




虽然在29/11 有微破支撑 5.06,然后今天看似即将要补回上涨缺口,但是却最后一根重新站上支撑,也再次收在强弱趋势线上。既然转强,下一个挑战的就是短期压力,一旦突破就直接看到5.60 (或 5.70 大波段涨幅)。目前来说,我依然维持之前对TOP GLOVE 走势的看法 - 短期看多长期看盘,至于是多是空?市场会告诉我答案。

Saturday, 19 November 2016

Is AAX On The Way To Hard Landing?


AAX 渡过了灾难的一周,这也许会被AAX 突然的下跌杀得措手不及,其实魔鬼藏在细节里,至于是那些细节,在之前的文章已经提过了,这里就不多细说。从日线图,16/11 的一根长红跌破了中期上升趋势线,然而就在18/11 也就是这周的最后一个交易日收高,以这样的走势对我而言看起来会比较像是逃命波,至于是否真的逃命,那就要看AAX在下一周的表现了,短期支撑在0.38。

A disaster week for AAX and this might surprised when it fell suddenly. But, the devils is hide in the details, as this has been mentioned in the previous post. From the daily chart, 16/11 AAX fell below the mid-term upward trend line, but it closed high in 18/11 which is the last trading day of this week. So, this is more likely an escape signal for me, but whether it really escape, then have to depends on the performance in next week, so short-term support at 0.38.



好了,如果这个真是逃命,那么又会逃到那边?从周线图来看,我认为会去到0.30 - 0.35 之间(波段跌幅到0.325)。然而,就周线的走势来看,这其实只是中期走势的横盘整理,而我觉得这个横盘走势还剩下6 - 8 个周。如果横盘是可以维持在短线支撑之上,那么就是属于强势整理,反之,就是弱势整理。

从月线图来看,重要支撑也是一样在0.325,那么0.325 是不能被跌破,如果价位继续再往下,恐怕连Tony 也要跳飞机,因为AAX  要硬着路了。

Well, where is the next support if this is an escape signal? I will think in the between of 0.30 - 0.35 (estimation target price is 0.325) if observe from weekly chart. However, this is looks like a sideways in mid-term trend and still have 6 - 8 week to go. So, If still able to maintain above the short-term support, then it will be a strong trend, otherwise it will be a weak trend.


From the monthly chart, the key support is the same in 0.325, but once broken, even Tony have to jump off the plane, because AAX is going to hard landing.

Wednesday, 16 November 2016

AAX, Mayday Mayday Mayday...


分析是一套,操作又是另外一套。
今天的AAX 直接跌破了关键支撑,连中期的上升趋势都被跌破,这样一来第二个假突破形成了。理性分析告诉我,在9/11 美国总统大选的大利空后隔了一天的交易日如果出现收黑,接下来的交易日就应该要套利了解。然而,操作上却附加了感性,“爱上”了AAX,出现了优柔寡断的行为,而导致了在AAX 由盈转亏。“在操作上,要如何完全依据分析的结果去执行?” 这个是我现在必须要思考和检讨的事情。

目前来看,两个假突破都寂静出现了,关键支撑和上升趋势线也被干掉,看来走空的几率大副提升,一旦跌破0.375,而下一个跌幅满足大约在0.325。如果走势开始止跌,也需要做一两个月的横盘整理,才有机会飞上云霄。


Tuesday, 15 November 2016

TA ANN, Phase 2.


今天TA ANN 继续往前推进,突破了大压力线,进入了大压力区,就如我说过的一旦突破关键压力,压力变支撑,TA ANN 的走势将会进入下一个阶段。

技术上分析,关键支撑在3.73 (或3.74),而关键支撑是不能被跌破,最好的是日K 收在关键支撑之上。目前来看,短期波段涨幅在大概 4.00;而中长期,只要不跌破关键支撑,日后将会维持大概两个月的大横盘走势,以逐渐消化前面第一段的空头结构。

基本上,TA ANN 现阶段的走势可以告一个段落,牛打败了熊,现在就看牛在下一个阶段的表现了,希望股价就一路向北。


Today TA ANN continues to move forward, breaking through the major pressure lines and heading into the big pressure area. As I mentioned in previous post, once the key pressure is breakout then TA ANN will enter to the next stage.


Technically, the key support at 3.73 (or 3.74), and this can not be broken. Currently, the short-term target price is at about 4.00; for mid-long term, TA ANN will maintain a large sideways trend to digest the first short structure gradually as long as the key support is not broken.

Basically, I think first stage of TA ANN trend is ended here, bull beat the bear, next is to see how bull is perform in the second stage. So, hopefully is all the way to north.


Previous Post:

TA ANN Bull Run Is Starting Up?!








Sunday, 13 November 2016

TA ANN Is Counterattack Again


TA ANN 横盘整理了大约三个月,之前多次突破都被空头袭击,可是最后都还可以站稳在3.45,这让我决定在3.45 - 3.50 之间从新进场布局。今天 11/11 终于做出了第三次突破,而且还是在9/11 的美国总统选举的大利空之后,多头吹起了反攻的号角,突破了这个更大的三角收敛 (或 a 线)。

技术上来看,目前的支撑在3.59,也就是突破点(起涨点)最好是不能被跌破,而3.68 将是要挑战的压力,至于3.73 将会是关键压力,一旦突破站稳在3.73,压力变支撑,3.73 就会成为一个关键的多头支撑,届时TA ANN 的走势就会进入了下一个阶段。

TA ANN sideways is for about three month before it breakout by today (11/11), before that was facing many times from bear attacks, but stand still at 3.45, and due this is factor, I decided to overweight on TA ANN again between 3.45 - 3.50. Finally, it make a third breakthrough, which is against to the bigger triangle (between the line a & b) after the US presidential election, where this is a bull counterattack.

Technically, the support is at 3.59 which is the breakout point must not allow to broken. Now, 3.68 is the next challenge, and 3.73 will be the crucial resistance line, once breakthrough and stand steadily above 3.73, then TA ANN trend will be going to the next stage.



纯粹分享,买卖自负。





Sunday, 6 November 2016

TUNEPRO, The Second Wave


自7/10 开始跌破上升趋势线后,我就看为趋势调整多过是空头行情 (TUNEPRO Is Ready To Adjust)。从上图可以清楚看见这调整从10/10 到 1/11,也就是冷眼效应终结了这个横盘调整。目前支撑从1.56 提升到1.61,如果TUNEPRO 是维持在1.61 以上做小幅度的整理,那就代表日后多数会走强,而我预测大概两周左右将会有所表态,反之,如果又跌回1.61,那么就看1.56 为支撑,而整个短期走势就会被改变,横盘震荡的时间又会加长了。

如果将时间轴拉长一点来观察,可以看得见其实TUNEPRO 就是在 a & b 线上下做震荡调整,一旦突破 a 线就看得出多头的决心,如果连续可以突破压力线,那就是第二波多头趋势的开始了,而波段涨幅估计分别会是大概1.87 和 2.00。

操作上,我认为如果是对TUNEPRO 有信心,1.61- 1.64 都是不错的价位。如果在低档区时有买入,还可以(等待突破) 再加码。但无论如何,请看好支撑,股市投资开始终都是有风险。




纯粹分享,买卖自负。

Thursday, 3 November 2016

Let's Short!


多 2 - 5 空,空方完胜。
多空交战了这么长的时间,今天空方顺道美国总统大选的变数,以一根日K 一口气灌破颈线和多方趋势线,将一个左右肩的头部给确立,然后再破多方的大趋势线,这里就形成了放空的加码区(可以设 1660 为追空停损点,又或者只做空一根日)。虽然往下还有多方的层层支撑,但是基于市场的恐慌情绪,看似都难以招架空方的攻击,日后的反弹只恐怕是逃命波而已。


Bull 2 - 5 Bear, Bear is win the game.
The neckline and uptrend line is broken at the same time by today after Bear-Bull is fighting for a period, these will gave the confirmation on head-shoulder head pattern. Moreover, the broken of uptrend line will create the overweight at sell side (1660 is the stop lose for sell side). Although there is a multiple support level on buy side, but due to the market sentimental, it seem hardly to defend the attack from sell side, and probably is an escape signal for any rebound.


Disclaimer

Please bare in mind that the stock market is full of risk, any forecasts and analysis has no guarantee can be made. 


Tuesday, 1 November 2016

TNLOGIS Turn To Strong Position


强势表态!
自结束了时间框后,TNLOGIS 开始在25/10 转强,然后观察了一连四个交易后,就在31/10 带量站上了起跌点,视为强势表态。最后,今天不需要回测支撑,就直接带量来突破前高点,但唯一的小遗憾就是今天最后收了一根上影线,而非以收盘价创下历史新高。

目前支撑已经来到了1.72,诚如我在之前的看法,短期内虽会有下修,但不是一个长空结构,所以我依然维持长期看多,一旦完全突破压力线,预计的大波段涨幅会在大约2.15。


Since the end of the time frame, TNLOGIS began to strengthen in 25/10, and then stood above 1.67 (which is the starting fall down point) after four trading day. Today, TNLOGIS breakthrough previous high with volume directly, but the only disappointment is closing with a shadow rather than with a record high price.

Currently, 1.72 is the support now, just as of my previous post mentioned that this is a correction instead of downtrend, so I will still remain as optimistic. So, once fully break through the resistance, then the estimated target price would be about 2.15.



What If SUPERMAX Go Below 3.00?

 I know this is a bit crazy... and definitely not a majority favourite... But I will let market to slap my face.