Good Or Bad KAWAN? Will Know After a Breakout Of 4.00

好“朋友”还是坏“朋友”？近期KAWAN 的走势看起来很强劲，自5/9 突破了下降趋势线 (a)，回测在 3.73 价位，然后今天突破前高 （不以上影线来测）收在 3.93。保守预测，目前应该会在 3.89 附近做个小整理区间，最后突破压力线展开多头旅程。

在操作上，5/9 的突破点和回测点都是我的进场时间点，支撑就设在3.726，然后等待最后的突破在4.00 之处做加码动作。然而，必须注意3.975，以防到达了波段涨幅后，“朋友” 翻脸走人。 所以，主力是我们的好“朋友”还是坏“朋友”？ 看来只有突破了4.00 才可以确认。 


Good Or Bad KAWAN? KAWAN trend seems very strong recently, since 5/9 breakthrough the downtrend line (a), then back tested at 3.73, and today surpass previous high (not measure the shadow) by closed at 3.93. Conservatively forecast, there should be a minor range of consolidation zone around 3.89, and then breakthrough the final resistance to start the bullish journey.

In operation, 5/9 breakthrough and back-tested both is the buy timing for me, and set the support at 3.726, then overweight after the final resistance 4.00 is breakthrough. However, we must be pay extra precaution at 3.975, just in case KAWAN make a U-turn after the target price is reached. So, whether big player is our Good Or Bad KAWAN? It seems like only can confirm after a breakout of 4.00.

Good Or Bad KAWAN?

KAWAN is breakout today, so far target is 3.977, support at 3.65. Otherwise, if fall below 3.65, then support will come to 3.397. Technically, I think KAWAN will move inside the box about one and the half month  before said it is go strong or weak. Anyway, stay with the support regardless invest or speculate. 
So, "good friend" or "bad friend", let market give me the answer at October.


KAWAN 今天做了突破，目前的短期涨幅在3.977，支撑在3.65。反之，上涨乏力跌破3.65，支撑就会来到3.397。从技术上，我觉得在 KAWAN 表态前，将会有大概一个月半的走势。无论如何，进场布局还是短期投机，都必须要看好支撑。
“好友”还是“损友”？ 就让十月份的市场来告诉我吧。

KAWAN Is On Fire

朋友告急！
自KAWAN 站上了3.26，就开始大幅度震荡了大概两个月，但是却多番都越不过前头部的右肩。尤其是在最近期的挑战失败后直接跌破短线支撑 3.65（支撑 1），在时间框作出弱势表态。如果下一个交易日站不上支撑 （支撑 1），那么就直接看3.57 （支撑 2）。在我的看法，如果连支撑 1 都站不上，就已经表示了短期走空，主力做了短期套利。

目前KAWAN 的走势这也符合了我在 My Views On The Future Trend of KAWAN 的预期，毕竟这两个月的大幅震荡，并不是一般人可以承受的。虽然看似短期走空，但还不能断定是长空趋势，必须持续观察，因为KAWAN 第二季的财报即将在这个8 月尾出炉。所以，可以肯定的是我不会选择在这个时间进场。

KAWAN is on fire!
Since KAWAN stood above 3.26,  then it started substantial oscillating for about 2 month, but still unable to surpass the head of the right shoulder. Especially after the failure from the most recent challenge directly fall below the support 3.65 (支撑 1), and made vulnerable position right after the symmetric time frame. If still unable to stand above the support 1 on the next trading day, else next support will go to (支撑 2). In my view, this is not optimistic if the support 1 is fail to sustain.


Currently, KAWAN trend is still meet my view in My Views On The Future Trend of KAWAN. Although short term seem bearish, but still need continue to observe before conclude it is a long term bear run as of the KAWAN second quarter financial report is upcoming soon by end of August. Therefore, now is not the suitable time for me to play yet.

Related
KAWAN Mean Friendship Forever?
My Views On The Future Trend of KAWAN

My Views On The Future Trend of KAWAN

KAWAN make a breakthrough from triangle pattern at last Friday. So, like this kind of trend is a good chance to speculate when notice a reversal signal, so I predict 3.34 is possible in a short term. 

Now is very close to the first resistance line and anytime will turn down. Conversely, if wish to turn into bullish, then is a must to breakthrough the first resistance line at 3.26, next is to develop a consolidation zone for at least 2 month times to digest the head position, after that breakthrough 3.42 than only preliminary bull trend is formed.  

But, If observed from weekly chart, then a long term trend can be seen clearly. Even though after the consolidation zone, but it just construct a M head pattern only from weekly chart. Unless it breakthrough 4.00, or else it will just make a bigger head, which to trap more money from retailer. If according to my analysis, once the second uptrend target price is reached, that usually is a top price. Except, another QE is coming, otherwise the best way to digest a head position is to introduce a Big Polar Bear.

So, I think current trend is disadvantage for long term investment, however, short term maybe still can make some fast money. Anyway, regardless long term or short term, eye on support & watch your risk.


KAWAN在上周最后的一个交易日作出了三角收敛突破。
以技术分析的投机者，一旦看到翻转讯号后通常都会在下一两个交易日进场，等待的就是这样的突破，而这一波的涨幅预测可以到大约3.34。

目前已经很接近第一道阻力，随时都会转弯往下。反之，如果是要由空转多，就必须能突破第一道阻力，还要在大概3.26以上震荡一段至少两个月的时间以消化头部的压力，然后再突破3.42，那么初步的多头趋势才算可以形成。

如果从周线来看，就更清楚看得出长期走势的发展，就算可以渡过两个月的震荡期然后突破，但是对周线来说也只是在筑M头，除非最后可以突破4.00，要不然也只是在做出一个更大的头部，套更多的资金而已。如果以我的技术分析，一旦第二波涨幅出现后，计算出来的涨幅价位，通常都是头顶价位。除非，出现再一波的资金浪潮，不然消化头部最好的方法，就是出现一波空头调整。

所以，我认为长期投资在现在的这个趋势没有优势，相反，短期投资也许还可以赚多这个波段。无论如何，不管长期还是短期，看好支撑，看好风险。

KAWAN Mean Friendship Forever?

30 May, KAWAN release 2016 Q1 financial report, net profit slump 21% and 37% if compare to last year same quarter and previous quarter respectively. This is never been happen before in the past 3 year, but today this report is a big disappointment for investor, lead toward a big drop with gap and closing at 3.00. But, some clues can be found from technical analysis, a month ago, neckline is broken, and bearish is started. In other words, insider is knew that the coming financial report 2016 Q1 is doesn't look good in a month earlier, at almost the same time I've shared the trending chart too, and estimate first downtrend target price at 3.00.

Now, my views is either KAWAN will have a short sideways between 2.69 - 2.98 roughly to digest the current bad news, or heading to second downtrend target price which is at 2.50, then make a small rebound after that. If unluckily bought at head side, but thinking to leverage down, maybe these two price can be the reference so far. So KAWAN mean friendship forever? for retailer yes, but for big player no. :-)

5月30号KAWAN 推出了2016 Q1 的财报，跟去年同期比较net profit 直接下滑21%，而跟上个季度比较下滑37%。这个状况是在过去的 3 年都不成发生过，但是今天这个让投资者大失所望的财报，导致跳空下杀closing 在3.0。但是，从技术分析中是可以看出一些端倪，在一个月前，颈线就已经宣布跌破了，此时结束了多头，同时也迎来了空头，换句话说，内行人比外行人早在一个月前已经知道2016 Q1 的财报是长成什么摸样，我也大约在当时分享了这个走势图，测出第一段跌幅在3.0。

我目前的看法是如果KAWAN 还有些底气，大概会在2.69 - 2.98　区间做一个横盘震荡以消化目前的坏消息；不然，就继续走空到第二段跌幅2.5，然后在附近做一个小反弹。如果是不幸套在头部区，又想要leverage down，也许这两个价位可以作为目前的参考，可是没有保障会否还有更低点。总的来说，KAWAN mean friendship forever? 对散户来说是，但是对大户来说不是。:-)