Sunday, 18 December 2016

MAGNI is Getting Farther Away (更新)



在周线图,一个三角形态的头部从2016 年初盘到年中,然后宣告跌破颈线看似会去满足头部跌幅;然而就在大概3.78 的价位止跌,然后翻转站上4.00,最后横盘在4.04 的价位支撑。可是,这从整体上来看,依然还是盘走在头部架构内(而且还是一个比先前更大的头部)。如果要扭转,就必须(1) 稳在支撑4.04,(2) 然后突破下降趋势线,(3) 最后突破4.66。至于多空,我想在下一个季度的财报出炉之前会表态。



Wednesday, 14 December 2016

MAGNI is Getting Farther Away


“美女”好像越走越远。
之前的分析已经提过,如果MAGNI要转为多头,就必须突破层层压力 4.50,4.60,4.70;反之,这都是夹着财报的利多来做最后的投机炒作而已。自MAGNI 盘上大概4.00 左右的价位,就开始了做高档震荡,而且高点一个比一个低,这个多为头部结构。今天,MAGNI 在高档巨量开高走低,真的让我感到惊讶,难道又有人“早知道”?

目前来说,短线支撑在4.03,而3.80 就是大颈线。如果跌破大颈线,那么就不幸被我言中,下杀的速度会很快,任何反弹皆逃命;否则就当我在吹水算了。无论明日走势如何,请看好支撑和风险管控。


MAGNI is getting farther away.
I had did the relevant analysis in previous post, If MAGNI wanted to twist it current trend into bullish, then it is necessary to break through all these layers of pressure 4.50, 4.60, 4.70, otherwise, this is the last speculation activity. MAGNI is had a sideways at top since it climb up 4.00, but the high point is getting lower than the previous, this is more likely a head structure. However, I am surprisingly that MAGNI is open high close low with huge volume by today, so does it means someone "know earlier"?

Currently, the support is 4.03, and 3.80 is the neckline. Once the neckline is broken, any rebound is the chances to escape, otherwise, just assume it is a joke. Anyway, please watch out the support and risk.




Monday, 12 December 2016

My Simple View From Technical Analysis 12 Dec 2016


今天KLSE 基于公共假期没有开市,然而并不代表能消化掉市场对这周FED决策会议的恐慌情绪,这个从指数拉到1643点,就好像是强弓之末,到达了极至,等待的就是配合利空下杀时机。目前,压力就在大概1643,短期支撑在1615;然而,就算站上了压力线也并不代表危机已经解除,因为KLCI 整体的趋势还是十分脆弱。

另一方面,马币成为了近期市场关注的“明星”,这也因为BNM 采取了类似货币管制的手段。从月线来看,我觉得马币走势会维持一个大区间的横盘震荡一段时间,这也许是反应了BNM可接受的范围区间。无论如何,我会继续观察日后的走势直到下一个强弱表态。



Friday, 9 December 2016

TUNEPRO, Rest is Ready For Longer Journey.


一直想要写TUNEPRO 的盘后分析很久了,可是就抽不出时间,所以今晚就特地设下一个小时来完成这个“任务”。

自冷眼效应后,TUNEPRO 一路走高,可是却在08/11 出现了一个假突破,随后的走势告急,就直接破支撑1.61,然后就大约在1.61 移动做弱势震荡,就在28/11 跌破关键支撑 1.56,这也就是我所提到的,如果TUNEPRO 要跑多头就不会跌破,一旦破这个关键支撑,哪怕一点点都要马上减码或出场。

如今整个1.56 以上的走势变成了一个头部,而1.40就是第一波段的跌幅,我预计在下一个走势表态前会有大概9 周的横盘整理在1.40 - 1.56 之间,所以以目前的走势来看,短期趋势而言不是盘,就是跌,毕竟消化头部也需要时间。然而,一旦跌破,下一个段跌幅就到1.25。

休息是为了走更长远的路,如果从月线图的走势来看,这次的下跌是为了筑一个更大的底部,以便在发动下一个第二波之前可以有更大的力量来替代前端的大头部,但前提是1.25 最后支撑必须是可以维持。

TUNEPRO is gained a strong force since after "Cold eye" effect, but a fake signal is appear at 08/11, then the trend turn down and break the support 1.61 after the following day. After that, it moving along the 1.61, and finally break the key support 1.56 at 28/11. As I had mentioned before, there is a must to exit or underweight once the key support is broken.

Now, the head is form whatever structure above 1.56, and 1.40 is the first target downtrend. In short-term, I think it will be either sideways (between 1.40 - 1.56 for about 9 week) or going down, therefore the second target price will be about 1.25 if 1.40 is broken.

Rest is ready for longer journey. If observe from monthly chart, the current trend is seem prepare to build a bigger base for the next second wave to take over the previous big head, but provided 1.25 is still maintainable.




Thursday, 8 December 2016

FCPO Trend Update (09 Dec 2016)


首先要恭喜那些做多FCPO 的投资人,应该是赚到饱饱,而FCPO 也大约来到了波段涨幅目标。然而,一旦到达了目标,就会开始有回测的压力 (也许会有人套做多赚到的钱来短空 FCPO),而这次的压力又会为油棕股带来怎样的效果呢?这就是我近期需要关注的走势。

Tuesday, 6 December 2016

SOP? SOS? (Update)


更新:
基于investing.com 的月线图没有调整SOP 在11/11 的right issue 价位,所以就加入周线来分析近期的走势。

今晚就无聊下写写SOP,而短期线(日线)就不看了,毕竟技术分析不一定是短期投机行为。这里是一个周线图,简单的看得出一个大概3 年的大M 头,基本上任何在头部的买点都是吃力不讨好(除非是确认得到是头部,不然大多数做长期的都会套在颈线之上)。在大约2015 年第一个季度就破了颈线,横盘了一年多在 2016的7 月份微破了支撑,看似要往下探时,11月份转强止跌回到支撑线之上。



目前来看,虽然站上了支撑 (3.67),但是我保守觉得还需要大幅度的横盘整理大约一年左右(大概4.55 - 3.67之间,而且还必须维持在3.67以上),才有机会再往上压力线做挑战,之后才可以确认多空。无论如何,想再战SOP 就应该知道什么是适合入场价位,但是务必请要看好支撑。


Sunday, 4 December 2016

The Trend of FCPO


在大约一个礼拜前分享过的TA ANN 分析,也附带FCPO的走势图,然而我只分享了周线,而没有放上月线,目的就是要等到11 月份的K 线完成,才放上来。

观察以上的月线图,11月份站稳在关键支撑之上,也就是站上前头部的颈线之上(M 头部),这几乎可以确定波段涨幅可以到大概3220。如果稳守在关键支撑之上,那么在关键支撑之下大约4年的走势就会变成一个大底部的形态;一旦确立,短空长多,日后要越过前高4000 就不会是一个问题。如果这次我大胆的说是一个主升段,不知道会不会有人笑我。

回到8月份时,在我第一对TA ANN 分析时也大胆下了同样的判断,而现在日周月线都收在关键支撑之上了。如今FCPO 也创了大约4年的新高,收在3000 以上,而这利多又会为所有油棕类股带来怎样的贡献?也许日后我们会陆续见到许多的财报或投行开始丢出建议报告。

I had share my analysis on TA ANN a week ago, and attach with FCPO weekly chart only. Now, the monthly chart is only shared because I wanted to confirm the closing price by end of the November.

According from above monthly chart, the closing price on end of November is stood above the key support, also means it overcome the neckline (from the M shape). So, this almost can confirm the target price 3220 is reachable. If stand still above the key support, then the structure below of key support will become base, once confirm, there is not a dream to surpass 4000 in the future. So, don't laugh at me if I boldly said the bullish is coming.

Back to August, I've mentioned the same thing on TA ANN, and TA ANN is closing at key support today regardless from daily, weekly and monthly chart. Now, FCPO is hit to the 4 year new high which is 3000, thereafter, any positive effect will bring to others palm oil stock? Perhaps, the recommendation on palm oil stock will release soon from financial paper or investment bank. 

Friday, 2 December 2016

SAM Is Had a Big Head Now!


一转眼就3个月了,今天观看SAM 才发掘这个礼拜出现一瞬间崩盘式下跌,这让我想起3个月前为了我的一个朋友分析过的一个贴 - SAM Engineering TA - Buy High Or Buy Low?,而这周K 一次性灌破颈线,确立了一个非常大的头部。所以,买股票除了会停损,也需要学会避免买在头部。

在观察了日线,我可以套一句网络潮语 “SAM GG 了",如果有机会反弹,那就是一个唯一逃命的机会了。

I just realized SAM is broke the neckline and had a terrible drop when I review back SAM today, and this remind me that I had wrote a SAM technical analysis - called SAM Engineering TA - Buy High Or Buy Low? - for my friend 3 month ago. So, a head is confirmed if observe from monthly chart, thus, we have to learn to avoid buy at head side.

From daily chart, I can said goodbye to SAM, and if a rebound happen, then that is the only chance to escape.


更新:
正为了寻找些资料时,无意看到SAM 近期的季度财报。这就是财报会先反应在股价上其中一个经典的列子,也就是总有人比我们“早知道”。


What If SUPERMAX Go Below 3.00?

 I know this is a bit crazy... and definitely not a majority favourite... But I will let market to slap my face.