Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Bears Is Around At PAVREIT


Today PAVREIT fall below the neckline finally, estimate downtrend target price is 1.505 currently, but I predict probably a rebound will happen for an escape signal. As long as fail to stand above the neckline, bears is still around at PAVREIT. 

Understand that PAVREIT is a popular stock for investor, because it is a defensive counter in portfolio, if bought at high price, then now should wait first instead of leverage down quickly, because we don't pick falling knife. 

等待了许久的PAVREIT 今天终于破颈线,目前预计第一段跌幅大约1.505,但是估计走势也许会有一段反弹做个逃命波。可是只要站不上颈线,空头趋势都还是无法扭转。

PAVREIT 是众多投资者的喜爱,因为在投资组合里是属于防守性股票,如果买在高档区的就别那么心急去leverage down,毕竟接捡榴莲好过接榴莲。


Monday, 30 May 2016

KAWAN Mean Friendship Forever?


30 May, KAWAN release 2016 Q1 financial report, net profit slump 21% and 37% if compare to last year same quarter and previous quarter respectively. This is never been happen before in the past 3 year, but today this report is a big disappointment for investor, lead toward a big drop with gap and closing at 3.00. But, some clues can be found from technical analysis, a month ago, neckline is broken, and bearish is started. In other words, insider is knew that the coming financial report 2016 Q1 is doesn't look good in a month earlier, at almost the same time I've shared the trending chart too, and estimate first downtrend target price at 3.00.

Now, my views is either KAWAN will have a short sideways between 2.69 - 2.98 roughly to digest the current bad news, or heading to second downtrend target price which is at 2.50, then make a small rebound after that. If unluckily bought at head side, but thinking to leverage down, maybe these two price can be the reference so far. So KAWAN mean friendship forever? for retailer yes, but for big player no. :-)

5月30号KAWAN 推出了2016 Q1 的财报,跟去年同期比较net profit 直接下滑21%,而跟上个季度比较下滑37%。这个状况是在过去的 3 年都不成发生过,但是今天这个让投资者大失所望的财报,导致跳空下杀closing 在3.0。但是,从技术分析中是可以看出一些端倪,在一个月前,颈线就已经宣布跌破了,此时结束了多头,同时也迎来了空头,换句话说,内行人比外行人早在一个月前已经知道2016 Q1 的财报是长成什么摸样,我也大约在当时分享了这个走势图,测出第一段跌幅在3.0。

我目前的看法是如果KAWAN 还有些底气,大概会在2.69 - 2.98 区间做一个横盘震荡以消化目前的坏消息;不然,就继续走空到第二段跌幅2.5,然后在附近做一个小反弹。如果是不幸套在头部区,又想要leverage down,也许这两个价位可以作为目前的参考,可是没有保障会否还有更低点。总的来说,KAWAN mean friendship forever? 对散户来说是,但是对大户来说不是。:-)




Saturday, 28 May 2016

PANAMY The Next Record High - My Review


I must say thank you to one of the forum-er from Investalks who ask me a good question  that led me to further analysis for my first post on PANAMY - PANAMY The Next Record High.

The triangle pattern is breakout at 24 May, but not significantly, then retreated slightly after 2 trading day. If observed closely, it has been sideways in past 13 trading days before breakthrough on last Friday. So, I shall try to interpret, perhaps due to the financial report is not yet released and in the middle cause a concern to the market, thus the sideways pattern is appear on PANAMY even though is a quality blue chip. After that, a small breakthrough from PANAMY triangle pattern, my guess is there might be some insider knew in advance, and thus a breakout on last Friday from the horizontal price movement as a confirmation signal.

Yes, I am maintain bullish currently, but I will set short term support at 29.4 to prevent a formation of a false signal once broken. Conversely, if not fall below short term support, then this will be a bullish trend.

三角收敛是在5月24 号做突破,但是却不明显,然后在后两个交易日有微服的拉下。如果深入观察,可以发现在上个礼拜五的突破前,已经横盘了13个交易日。现在我就献丑尝试来解读,也许是因为业绩迟迟还没有发出,而让市场有所忧虑,就算像PANAMY是属于优质蓝筹股也都出现了横盘格局。之后,PANAMY三角收敛的小突破我猜也许是有内行人预先知道了一些消息,然后直到上个礼拜五突破横盘确认。

所以,目前我是维持看多,但是我将短期支撑设在29.40,以防一旦破了形成假突破讯号。反之,如果短期支撑没有破坏,那么这个会是一波多头行情。


Friday, 27 May 2016

PANAMY The Next Record High


"Find me the support line, and I shall ignore any price".
PANAMY this heavyweight counter is adjust a bout 2 month and breakout finally, but do this time will make another record high? Anyway, I shall take 29.06 as the support, and estimate the short term first target price is 31.63. If observe from monthly chart, as long as the trend is not turned over, this would be a bearish, target is about 35.

「給我一個支撑,我就可以不管任何价位。」
PANAMY 这个重量级股大约盘了将近两个月,终于往上突破,这突破会不会又创新高?无论如何,就捉29.06 为支撑进场,预计短线第一波涨幅在31.63。如果从长线来判断,只要趋势没有翻转,这会是一个上涨趋势,目标大概35。





Thursday, 26 May 2016

Will IVORY Glorious Again?


IVORY, a counter that profit gain 22% within 2 week in May, do possible to have another glory again?
A head pattern is build nearly one and the half year, finally fall below neckline in early of august, after that a bearish trend is kick start, until met the downtrend target price, then an acute rebound is made and retreated into the bottom started to build a base.

IVORY,一档在五月份内用了两周盈利22% 的股票,是否能再次辉煌?
盘了将近一年半的多头,终于在八月初破了颈线,就开始启动了多空趋势,一直到了跌幅满足后,就做了一个急性反弹,然后又回档开始进入盘底。




The W base is spend about 3 and the half month to complete, 6 May 2016 I started enter this counter at 0.365. 10 May 2016 the resistance is breakout, uptrend is formed, and the closing price reach 0.4 straight away on that day, then I top up at 0.4 in the next trading day because I foresee will having a second wave. After that, the trend is as per my estimation, and then I exit this counter at 0.46. Now, a breakthrough is happen on this triangle pattern which is formed after a week, so it is possible heading forward to the next challenge at 0.505? Or the glorious is gone ever after? We will close monitoring, wait and see.   

这个W底部大约盘了三个月半,06/05/2016 我就开始进场价位是0.365。10/05/2016 IVORY 宣告突破压力线,形成上升趋势,当天就一口气收盘在0.4。隔天开盘,我再加码在价位0.4,因为我计算会有第二波的涨幅。之后就如我的预测,出现了第二波段的涨幅,而我也将全部的部位在0.46的价位套现。如今盘了一周的小三角收敛在今天做了突破,是否能往上挑战下一个目标价位0.505?还是光辉一去不复返?我们就持续观察,拭目以待。





Wednesday, 25 May 2016

YEELEE - Found a Short Term Break


First of all need to congrats YEELEE won the RedBull authorized dealership, but the stock price can't have another strike by this good news. 6 April 2016, after a breakout is failed from the triangle pattern, trend is going develop to horizontal movement currently, fluctuations between support (2.2) and resistance (2.35), if it go stable and without dumping, then maybe another uptrend will happen after the time frame. Conversely, it will turn to bearish if the support is break within the time frame. 

首先要恭喜YEELEE得到RedBull 的代理权,但是这个好消息不能再为股价又创造一波的多头行情。06/04/2016 三角形态突破失败后,目前看是进入横盘发展,波动在支撑(Support)和压力(Resistance)之间,如果能稳住而没有出现大买盘,那么在时间框之后会有多头出现的机会。反之,支撑在时间框内跌破,那么趋势就由盘转空。


Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Is TUNEPRO Turn Weak?


According to today closing price is fall below my short term support line 1.5, so a stop lose is require for short term strategy and wait for the next entry timing; for mid-long term, shall reduce counter or on hold and keep close monitoring, but top up is not advisable because the ideal top up timing should be right after the resistance is breakthrough or at least wait until the trend is turn stronger.

Observation from weekly chart, a strong attacking from three white soldier is formed clearly since one month ago, although the attacking is unsuccessful and now the short term support line is back to 1.43, but the defensive formation from three white soldier should at least able to provide some protection to this fall back so far. In short, the base support is not allow to break, once broken then the bearish trend is confirmed and end up everything.

根据今天的收盘价跌破了我之前设下的短线支撑1.5,如果是短线操作,就需要马上停损然后再等待下一个进场的时机;如果是中长期,可以选择减码或继续持有然后持续观察,但是不建议加码,因为加码应该是在突破压力线的位置或者至少等到短线走势由弱转强。

从周线观察,可以清楚看得见三根带量上涨形成一种强势攻击。虽然目前攻击失败往下回档,而短线支撑来到了1.43,但是这三个白头兵形成的防线,估计应该至少可以抵挡空方的攻击。无论如何底部支撑是不能破坏,不然就会翻转变成空头趋势一切宣告结束。









Monday, 23 May 2016

Is PADINI Raising or Fallen?





12 April 2016, PADINI is having a significant drop with high volume, which fall below the short term neckline directly, and then formed a small head-shoulder, at that time, I foresee a short term bearish is started. However, a strong reversal is appear at the fifth trading day, a long white bar with huge volume make the closing price is stand above the neckline, huge volume come with higher price, so in operation wise, we can enter at the closing price 2.07 and set cut lose at 2.00 in case it fall below neckline again.

In the next trading day, it stand above and beyond the right side of head-shoulder, further more it surpass the previous high and trying to challenge the record high, basically the trend is turn strong now. Currently, two times attempt to challenge record high, short term support is 2.33, if the challenge is successful in the next several trading days, then I can expect PADINI will reach 2.8. Conversely, if subsequent challenge is powerless and fall back below the important support 2.23 then touch the larger neckline, it will begin to form a bigger head-shoulder. So, is PADINI raising or fallen? we will see in this week。

PADINI 在12/04/2016 出现了长黑带量下跌,直接破了小颈线而形成了一个小头部,此时我预测会是一个短期的空头趋势的开始。然而,在第五个交易日出现了强势的扭转,一根大量上涨站回小颈线上,所谓大量必有高点,操作上可以在当时的收盘价位2.07下一个小注,停损就在价位2.00,以防万一又跌回小颈线之下。

在隔天的交易日便超越而且还站稳在小头部的右肩之上,之后更进一步的突破了前高并开始尝试挑战历史新高,基本上这是一个转强趋势。目前两次挑战失败,短期支撑在2.33,如果在近这几个交易日内挑战成功,那么我预计涨幅可以到达2.8。反之,如果后续无力而跌破了重要支撑2.23 回到大颈线,那么就会开始形成一个更大的左右肩。所以,PADINI的强势就这样终结? 还是往上又刷历史新高就看这个这礼拜了。




Sunday, 22 May 2016

Crude Oil - My Analysis, Operation, and Views




Since Brent Oil fall below the neckline at 01/09/2014 end up the big triangle pattern and thus started it bearish trend. From that moment, I started to monitor and estimate the downtrend target price.

自Brent Oil 在01/09/2014 跌破颈线,这个做了大约三年半的大三角收敛头部正式告终也就因此进入一个长空趋势,而我就开始追踪和计算跌幅希望可以捉到原油这一波跌幅的低点。



Beginning in mid January 2016, I focus more closely by monitoring Brent Oil trend everyday, because it reached the second band of downtrend target price range from the head pattern. 2016 Jan 21 and 22, an obvious rebound signal is appear respectively, then I bought DAYANG while pull back in 25th, but rebound the next day, so I believe a bullish trend started. Then, I bought DELEUM. At the end, Brent Oil is rose all the way to about 42, is 50% increase, and also led to a number of popular O&G stock toward bullish in KLSE.

However, I decide to arbitrage DELEUM and reduce number of DAYANG when this uptrend is fail to breakout the second support line. But, top up DAYANG again when Brent Oil is rebound near the first support line because I foresee Brent Oil will reach at least 50 at that moment. However, DAYANG trend is goes differently with crude oil since after the second support line, also DAYANG is fall below it support too, so I decide to clear all DAYANG, so in total profit for DELEUM and DAYANG is about 23% and 18% respectively.

At the same time, KLSE ended it two and the half month uptrend, and started go differently with Brent Oil, even though STI and HSI too. So, I started to thinking if good news from Brent Oil can't even pull up KLSE, then what others factor can? Or, I think from different angle, what make crude oil rose in second wave? Demand is coming back? Or political factor?

2016 一月中旬开始,我便每一天都有关注Brent Oil 的走势,毕竟已经到达了第二波段头部跌幅和波段跌幅的价位区间。在2016 一月份的21 和22 号分别见到了明显的反弹,我便买进了DAYANG。虽然在25 号拉回,可是隔天又反弹,相信那就是Brent Oil 多头的开始,于是我又买进了DELEUM。果然,这一波Brent Oil 就一路涨到大约42,足足50%的涨幅,也带动了一些热门的汽油股。

然而,这一波的上涨却突破不了第二道支撑线时,我便套现了DELEUM 和减码了DAYANG。
当Brent Oil 在第一道支撑线作出反弹时,我又开始加码DAYANG,因为这时我预计这波Brent Oil 行情可以涨到至少50。然而,自Brent Oil 突破第二道支撑线时,DAYANG 的走势便开始和原油分离,而且DAYANG也开始跌破了支撑,这时候我便出清了所有DAYANG 的股票,总计DAYANG 和DELEUM 的利润大约23% 和18%。

同时,KLSE 也宣告结束了这两个月半的上涨趋势,也开始与Brent Oil 背离,就连STI和HSI 都是相同。在这里,我不禁开始思考,如果连Brent Oil 的利多都拉动不起KLSE, 那么还有什么因素可以拉动的起?又或则从另外的一个角度来看,到底原油第二波的上涨是基于需求复苏?还是政治因素?





As for Brent Oil future trend should be go side-way above the second support line as long as not fall below the support then 53.28 will be the big resistance line.

Below is WTI, should able go up to 50 above as long as the short term uptrend line is not broken, then will follow the same way with Brent Oil to having a long term adjustment.
For USO, 11.41 is the support, if breakout 12.06 then the next challenge is 13.09.

至于Brent Oil 以后的走势,应该会在第二道支撑以上横盘发展(只要不破支撑),大概53.28 会是它的大阻力。

以下是WTI,只要不上升趋势不被破坏,应该可以看到50 以上,然后会跟Brent Oil 一样来个长期的盘整。
USO 目前支撑是11.41, 如果能突破12.06 就往13.09 挑战。






Thursday, 19 May 2016

What Next for Ringgit?



USD/MYR is formed a triangle pattern for about 4 month time, breakthrough but go bullish reversal at the end, then it decline and meet target price 3.9477, after that it started to go side-way to form a small base. A small breakout right after 3 May, then I started to predict it first target price which around 4.08. Today, the first target is happened, and directly pull up some of the correlated stock.

Now, the question is what next for ringgit? Or like what I predict it will going to challenge the second target price which is 4.1975? Anyway, I do think we are hardly to see below 4 again in short term when after it stand above 4. 

自马币走了一个大约4 个月的三角收敛,最后却是失败的突破,然后到达计算的跌幅满足后,就开始筑了一个月的小底部。5月3号开始做一个小突破后,我就开始预计看涨到大约4.08 左右,今天就到达了第一波的目标价位,直接也拉动了一些以美元为红利的股票。

现在下一个问题就是马币何去何从? 或就如我说的即将要往挑战重重的第二涨幅目标4.1975前进?无论如何,站得上4 以上,短期之内都很难可以见到4 以下。






Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Is TUNEPRO Turn?


"Give me the place to stand, and I shall move the earth". Archimedes said.
"Find me the support line, and I shall ignore any price". Support is a very important in technical analysis because it determines operational decisions. 

TUNEPRO is having a horizontal price movement for about 9 month and shown a strong signal at 03/03/2016 to form a solid bottom structure; then now it breakout and I shall take 1.5 as the support.

For long term investment strategy, if this counter is good in fundamental then every pull back after the strong signal at 03/03/2016 is a good entry price as long as not breaking the support line at 1.25; then top up if breakthrough the resistance. In case if the support is broke, either cut lose or reduce stock is require.

「給我一個支點,我就可以撬起整個地球。」阿基米德說
「給我一個支撑,我就可以不管任何价位。」支撑在技术分析是非常重要,因为它决定了操作上的决策。

TUNEPRO 盘了大概9个月的底部,然后往上突破,我就捉一个支撑1.5进场 。

如果看好基本面,在长期投资的策略我会在03/03/2016 往上拉后的每一个底点都可以布局,只要不跌破1.25 就可以;突破后加码再将支撑提升到1.5,如果万一破了支撑,就必须要有减码的动作了。



Monday, 16 May 2016

Escape



Observe from monthly candlestick, there is a Head & Shoulder is formed about 2 year, and it break the neckline since 2015 august, and the index reach 1500 once before. Then, it pull up for 7 month, and go reversal at the eighth month, after that break the short-term neckline in the following month. 1600 is a crucial barrier, once broken the next is 1500.

Actually, this is a very obvious short trend pattern which is spend 7 month to pull the index to reach about 1700 but it back to original in 2 month. Once the main downtrend is started, about 1300 are expected.
So, if you do not wish to trapped, please escape.

从月线可以看得见一个用了两年形成的左右肩,在2015八月跌破了颈线,指数还一度破了1500。然后往上拉了7个月,在第八个月开始做翻转,第九个月跌破了小颈线。1600 点是一个非常重要的心理关卡,一旦破了下一个看到的就是1500 点关卡。

从长线看这是个非常明显的空头格局,也就是花了7个月拉到1700 左右,但是却用两个月打回原形。一旦这空头趋势的主跌段来临,预计可以看到大约1300点吧。
所以,不想套,就逃吧。

What If SUPERMAX Go Below 3.00?

 I know this is a bit crazy... and definitely not a majority favourite... But I will let market to slap my face.