PADINI Is On Sales

基本上我８月中就开始看空了，当时还放了“PADINI, Here Comes a Bear”这样的一个标题。早在九月初已经出现了翻转讯号，就是拖了两个月的时间，在23/11 跌破上升趋势线，然后在25/11 微量收高。那时侯就知道星期一PADINI　开始大减价，只是有点意外的是减价的幅度最高竟然来到８％。

由于一口气跌破了颈线2.68，下一个支撑是大概2.57，短期压力就在2.76；如果可以重新站上颈线，也需要横盘在下降趋势线和颈线之间一段时间，届时才看看行情如何。然而，上涨无量下跌带量，所以我个人对后面的走势不会乐观。

补充一点，虽然我对后面的走势不乐观，但从长期的角度来看，我认为这个会比较是长天期的大波动调整，而多过是一个空头格局。

PADINI, Here Comes a Bear

近期PADINI 开始转弱，短线支撑来到2.86，一旦跌破，狼这次就应该真的来了，而这波的多头行情就是时候宣布结束。

PADINI turn weak recently, and I will set 2.86 as the current support, once broken then consider the bull run is going to the end soon. 

目前PADINI 的走势基本上符合了我在 PADINI TA - Now and Future 的预期，不管从日线，周线还是月线都已经到达了波段涨幅区间大约2.80，虽然价位屡创新高，量却是收缩，所以必须额外小心，而我大胆估计上升趋势已经差不多走到了尽头，而即将进入一个大幅度震荡的区间，也许是筑一个头部区，或大区间的调整也说不定。无论如何，如果在波段涨幅满足后仍继续追价，这只会将自身的风险大幅提升。

在操作上，中短期策略我都会选择在到达了涨幅满足后就获利了解，毕竟没有人可以真正卖在最高的价位，除非你是造市者。


So far, PADINI trend is still meet my expectation in PADINI TA - Now and Future, regardless from daily, weekly or monthly chart, the target price about 2.8 is reached, although it keep break the record high, but the volume is decreasing, so extra cautions is needed, and now I dare to predict that the uptrend is almost come to the end, next is about to enter a substantial shock interval, perhaps building a head or a big adjustment. No matter how, this is not advisable to buy in after the target price is reached, because this will going to increase the risk itself.

In mid & short term operation, I will choose to arbitrage right after reaching the target price, because no one can really sell at the highest price, unless you are the market maker.

PADINI TA - Now and Future

PADINI is stand on the neckline without adjustment after fall below the neckline due to BREXIT day, and the short atmosphere eliminated directly by this action. So, the neckline is turn into adjustment interval a & b, this can be seen as an adjustment before bullish. Breakthrough point a, then goes up after retracement, the first support is established at 2.37; Then breakthrough point c as the confirmation of bullish trend, support increase up to 2.49. So, all these are the standard behavior of a strong trend. Therefore, I predict 2.715 is the next short term target price.    

PADINI 破了颈线不须调整就直接站上颈线，将空头氛围给消灭，由空转多，颈线就转变成双轨下调区间 a & b，可以看成多头调整或多空交叉。突破了a，回测又上涨，第一多头支撑建立在2.37；然后突破 c 多头确立，支撑提升到2.49。这些都是强势股的标准行为，而这一波我预计可以看得到大概2.715。

From monthly chart, PADINI is breakthrough the historical high now and the target price is about 2.8 and 2.345 is the support for this strong trend. If I am not mistaken, there will be a sideways or ramp shape adjustment, then again to rise over 2.8 until it begin to build a larger head pattern to put this bullish trend to the end. 

以月线来看现在是已经突破了历史高点，波段计算是可以预计涨到2.8，而如今的多头支撑是2.345。我如果没有看错，日后的走势会有一段横盘或下斜调整，然后又再上涨越过 2.8 直到开始盘头，最后会做一个更大的头部以结束这波的多头趋势。

UEMS, MINHO, IVORY & PADINI - The Post BREXIT Comment

UEMS 如预期的横盘了大约一个月左右，然后顺道在BNM 宣布调降OPR 后以突破压力线作出了表态。虽然突破了压力线，但是能否突破前面的假讯号才是关键点；而今天微跌到底是做回测还是又多一个假突破讯号？就看这几天的交易日了。

相比之下，MINHO 的走势来得更强，自BREXIT 的大利空后由多转盘，但是横盘整理的时间比UEMS 还短，然后就一路向北，这也就是有在 UEMS & MINHO Is Looks Black Too 里提过的主力始终都欲在一连串的企业活动中推动股价。所以，有主力的果然就是不一样。

基本上 IVORY 如果站不上颈线，我的看法依然维持 Sorry, I Still Don't think So，而且还留了一个非常长的上影线。所以，目前我预计会有一段横盘的发展以抵消空头氛围。

PADINI, 我低估了主力要卫捍多头局势的决心，就算利空破颈线，不做调整直接拉上颈线。既然如此，也必须尊重市场的意愿，如果前高挑战成功，那么下一个挑战就是 2.80 了。


Related Post

Is PADINI Raising or Fallen?
PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious?
UEMS & MINHO Is Looks Black Too
PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? Sorry, I Don't Think So.

PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? Sorry, I Don't Think So.

Now PADINI trend has become a weak structure, so far it fall below the small neckline and formed a small head, then 2.2 is become the most important support now. Once broken, the bigger head will become more obvious. Anyway, I do think that PADINI won't break record high and I won't think to buy in at all too. 

PADINI 如今的走势已经变成了弱势结构，目前还跌破了小颈线构成了一个小头部，现在2.2 将会是一个非常重要的支撑，一旦破了，大头部也更加明确了。无论如何，我认为PADINI 不再可能创新高 2.8，而且目前也不会建议买入。

For the same thing, IVORY is also the same type -Weak Structure. No any strong signal appear after 10 trading day that I had mention, some more still break the support. Now, with the market sentiment, I predict it is possible can go to 0.4 and below. So, PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? I have to sorry to said "I don't think so".

同样的，IVORY 也是属于同一个类型 - 弱势结构。在10个交易日后完全没有出现翻强讯号，反而还跌破支撑。而如今配合市场情绪，我预计可以看到0.4 以下的IVORY。PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? 对不起，我必须说我不认为。

PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious?

Since I wrote Is PADINI Raising or Fallen? last week, I expect a signal shall able to capture  from PADINI, then a fake signal is shown from PADINI in the last trading day at the same week. Now the trend is turned into sideways, started a period of about 11 trading days of horizontal price movement,within range 2.24 - 2.40. If luckily fall below 2.24 within these few trading days, then it will turn into bearish; conversely, if breakout after that, then the trend will turn into much more stronger, 2.80 will be reachable.

Also, IVORY have a false break in 27 May too at the last trading day in the same week. However, 2016 Q4 financial report is release after 2 trading day, and showing it net profit is decline significantly, directly destroy the triangle pattern. Now, IVORY is having the same trend too which entering a horizontal price movement, and not allow to fall below the support within about 10 trading days, otherwise it will turn into bearish. Conversely, it will turn strong.

Coincidence these two counter is having horizontal price movement with almost the same time frame instead of quick fall, I just guess maybe these two counter still have the shadow of big player, and they are trying to drag it until mid of June for either the next uptrend or stock clearing by following the background of 

Brexit

FED June Meeting 

自在上个周写了Is PADINI Raising or Fallen? 我预期PADINI应该会作出表态，而PADINI就在最后的交易日出现了假突破以作为那一周的结尾。如今的走势由多转盘，进入了为期大约11个交易日的高档震荡，区间在于2.24 - 2.40。如果在这期间内不幸跌破2.24, 趋势就会由盘转空；相反，如果能够撑得过又或突破成功，那么走势就会转成强势结构，而2.80　就指日可待。

同样在27/05，IVORY 也出现了假突破，一根长红就直接收在那一周的最后交易日。然而，在两个交易日后发布的2016 Q4　财报显示了net profit 呈现衰退，才直接将小三角收敛破坏然后转入横盘。如今，也同样的进入了一个震荡区间，支撑在大约10个交易日内是不能被跌破，不然走势就会由盘转空。反之，走势就会由盘转强。

巧合的是在这里发现了这两个股目前都是进入了大约相同时间框的震荡区间而并没有选择直接下杀了事。这也许是大户们的筹码还在这两档股票中，就是利用时间拖到这个六月中旬的两件大事来换取下一段的涨幅或者出货。

英国脱欧公投

美聯儲议息会议

　

　

Is PADINI Raising or Fallen?

12 April 2016, PADINI is having a significant drop with high volume, which fall below the short term neckline directly, and then formed a small head-shoulder, at that time, I foresee a short term bearish is started. However, a strong reversal is appear at the fifth trading day, a long white bar with huge volume make the closing price is stand above the neckline, huge volume come with higher price, so in operation wise, we can enter at the closing price 2.07 and set cut lose at 2.00 in case it fall below neckline again.

In the next trading day, it stand above and beyond the right side of head-shoulder, further more it surpass the previous high and trying to challenge the record high, basically the trend is turn strong now. Currently, two times attempt to challenge record high, short term support is 2.33, if the challenge is successful in the next several trading days, then I can expect PADINI will reach 2.8. Conversely, if subsequent challenge is powerless and fall back below the important support 2.23 then touch the larger neckline, it will begin to form a bigger head-shoulder. So, is PADINI raising or fallen? we will see in this week。

PADINI 在12/04/2016　出现了长黑带量下跌，直接破了小颈线而形成了一个小头部，此时我预测会是一个短期的空头趋势的开始。然而，在第五个交易日出现了强势的扭转，一根大量上涨站回小颈线上，所谓大量必有高点，操作上可以在当时的收盘价位2.07下一个小注，停损就在价位2.00，以防万一又跌回小颈线之下。

在隔天的交易日便超越而且还站稳在小头部的右肩之上，之后更进一步的突破了前高并开始尝试挑战历史新高，基本上这是一个转强趋势。目前两次挑战失败，短期支撑在2.33，如果在近这几个交易日内挑战成功，那么我预计涨幅可以到达2.8。反之，如果后续无力而跌破了重要支撑2.23 回到大颈线，那么就会开始形成一个更大的左右肩。所以，PADINI的强势就这样终结? 还是往上又刷历史新高就看这个这礼拜了。