Monday, 27 June 2016

BREXIT Is Just a Beginning

BREXIT finally is happened. 
Although most of the Central Bank and Investment Institute had did preparation by observe from the USD/MYR which rose before the day of BREXIT, to prepare enough local currency for the contingency of financial crisis. However, a big shock still happen in financial market on that day, and every investment institute is busy to supporting the stock market thus cause KLCI close with a very long shadows.   

BREXIT 最后真的发生了,虽然很多的央行和投资机构事前都做好了准备,从USD/MYR 可以看得出在BREXIT 前一天还大升了一段,明显的国内一些投资机构和央行大量汇了本币以防万一 。然而,还是引发了在金融市场的大波动,当天各大“国家队”在收市前忙着撑稳股市汇率,也因此KLCI 收了一根非常长的下影线,而且还一度跌破 了支撑。






But, did the story ended like that? No.
Dow Jones Index fall below the small neckline finally and going to downtrend which heading to the biggest neckline. At the same time, S&P 500 is facing the same fate too.

可是,故事是不是这样就结束?我想并没有。
美国的Dow Jones Index 盘了那么巨大的大头部,终于都破了小颈线转为空头趋势往大头部的颈线迈进,同样的S&P 500 也面临一样的走势。





The only developed country stock market - Japan NIKKEI 225, also is the weakest stock market fell about one thousand point on that day, some more it break the downtrend support line as well. So, I predict still have room to drop, which until the first downtrend target point 13495.

而亚洲唯一的先进国股市 - 日本 NIKKEI 225,也是最弱的股市,当天直接跌了一千点左右,而且还破了下降趋势中继站的支撑。我预计还可以继续跌到达第一道跌幅价位大约 13495。



DAX can consider is the strongest market in Europe, but break the support line finally and getting closer to it final neckline, and what was waiting for is to break the final neckline to confirmed the downtrend.

DAX 是欧洲最强的股市,也终于破了小颈线,离大颈线越来越近,最后等待的是跌破大颈线来给大头部做个确认。



Lastly, the FTSE100 fate is unavoidable to having a big crash, but it the damage is lesser if compare to DAX. Maybe this is due to the FTSE100 is broke the neckline already thus the momentum is decrease. However, GBP/USD is facing the biggest drop in the half century, and I predict it can be reach the second downtrend target price. 

最后,这个事件的主角虽然也一样打劫难逃,但是跟DAX 相比跌幅却来得少。也许,主要的原因是因为起跌点的位置并不是在大颈线之上。然而,GBP/USD 就相反,跌副简直是到达了近这半个世纪的底点,我预计还可以到达第二波段跌幅。








In summary, Now all the major stock market is still at the high-side, especially Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 which is just going down from the top of head-side, DAX just heading near to the neckline; If compare with FTSE100 and Asia stock market which is broke the neckline already. So, We can see from here that all the stock market is heading to downtrend, plus I do not think there is any good news will be announce in the future (except a new round of QE is activated). Even though FED is give up to jack up the interest rate in July, but it doesn't mean the bearish trend is able to twisted. That is why George Soros is return from retirement and started to short the market.

So, BREXIT is just a beginning.


总的来说,现在众多的股市都还处在高档当中,尤其是美国的Dow Jones Index 和 S&P 500 只是刚刚从头顶跌破,而德国的DAX 才刚要接近破颈线;相比之下英国的FTSE100 和亚洲股市都已经跌破了颈线。其实,从这里可以看得见全球的主要市场已经是往下走,而且在未来的日子里并看不见有任何的利多消息;就算FED 在七月里不会升息,也并不代表可以扭转这个空头趋势。基于如此,也难免George Soros 会复出来做空股市。

所以,BREXIT 只是一个开始。 


Sunday, 26 June 2016

PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? Sorry, I Don't Think So.



















Now PADINI trend has become a weak structure, so far it fall below the small neckline and formed a small head, then 2.2 is become the most important support now. Once broken, the bigger head will become more obvious. Anyway, I do think that PADINI won't break record high and I won't think to buy in at all too. 

PADINI 如今的走势已经变成了弱势结构,目前还跌破了小颈线构成了一个小头部,现在2.2 将会是一个非常重要的支撑,一旦破了,大头部也更加明确了。无论如何,我认为PADINI 不再可能创新高 2.8,而且目前也不会建议买入。



For the same thing, IVORY is also the same type -Weak Structure. No any strong signal appear after 10 trading day that I had mention, some more still break the support. Now, with the market sentiment, I predict it is possible can go to 0.4 and below. So, PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? I have to sorry to said "I don't think so".

同样的,IVORY 也是属于同一个类型 - 弱势结构。在10个交易日后完全没有出现翻强讯号,反而还跌破支撑。而如今配合市场情绪,我预计可以看到0.4 以下的IVORYPADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious? 对不起,我必须说我不认为。




Monday, 20 June 2016

After June Still Have July


The recent Brexit campaign tragedy "temporarily" ease tense from global market, and so for KLCI too which showing a strong reversal, but it just return to the shock interval. However, the market sentiment is still exist.

In addition, even though return to shock interval, KLCI is expect to have a confirm signal with or right after the time frame if said going to bullish, otherwise the possibility turn into bearish is increase. In fact, this point should also be a time for the next FED interest rate meeting. Unless FED give up on hiking interest rate, otherwise, after June, still have July.
  

凭着英国的一场悲剧“暂时”让全世界的股市翻转,而KLCI 也跟着出现强势翻转,但也只是回到震荡区间,由危急变成暂缓而已。所以,市场情绪依然是围观。

另外,纵使回到震荡区间,KLCI也必须在时间框内或大概结束之后有所表态,不然由盘转空的几率就大了。其实,这也应对了FED 下一个升息会议的时间点。总的来说,除非FED 放弃升息(紧缩),不然躲得过六月,也躲不过七月。




Thursday, 16 June 2016

The Clue of Big Crash - Gold Spot




Early in the first quarter of 2014 when gold spot fell below the neckline, no more close monitoring after downtrend target price is drew.

早在2013 第一季当黄金跌破颈线,画了跌幅满足够就不再观察了。




Until recently the market (KLCI) and the global stock market crash then started to look back to the trend of gold spot, cause gold is the safe haven for all assets, discover that gold is breakthrough the uptrend support line, and entering a high band shock interval after all. 

Although it broke the second shock interval once before, but it took one trading day to recover and move above the support line, so this is means for the main force, also means big player is deploy since 8/2/2016, thus the starting point is won't broken easily.

Ironically, gold spot strong signal occurred in 3/6/2016, meanwhile KLCI is breakthrough the downtrend resistance line in the same day. Then, the next trading day 6/6/2016 KLCI rose about 12 point, and rose about 11 point at 7/7/2016. However, 8/6/2016 the market is stared to crash, but gold spot is rose about 15 point. Finally, KLCI bearish is confirm at 10/6/2016 which is the fake signal is formed after fall below the support! This is what I means Monday Blue? Black? After that, what happened is the market collapse. Frankly, 7 days closing with a black candle stick continuously and decline almost 50 points,  if this is not a bearish, then what is so-called bearish? Some more KLCI break the support by today.


直到近期大盘(KLCI) 和全球股市崩盘,才翻看回黄金的走势,毕竟黄金是所有资产的避风港,发现黄金在 2月8号时突破了上升趋势支撑线,从此以后就一直在高档盘震 。

虽然曾经一度跌破第二震荡区间的支撑线,但是却用了一天交易日的时间站上支撑线上,这个就是主力的力量,也代表主力从 8/2/2016 开始布局了,必然主力不会轻易让起涨点被跌破。

讽刺的是,黄金的专强讯号是发生在3/6/2016,而当天KLCI 还突破了下降压力线,然后下一个交易日 6/6/2016 大涨大约12 点,然后7/6/2016 涨大约11 点。然而,8/6/2016 就是崩盘的开始也就是黄金出现拉高收盘。最后,在10/6/2016 KLCI 正式跌破支撑而形成假讯号也代表空头确立!而就是我称为的黑色星期五;之后所发生的事情就是我们所见到的崩盘。坦白说,一连7 天收黑还跌了将近50 点,如果这个不是空头,什么才叫做空头?而且今天的KLCI 收盘还直接跌破支撑线。



Gold? Still rose until today! So, I believe the foreign investor is really amazing, pull up KLCI a bit, buy short options, then use the big event - BREXIT - in this month to make the market collapse, then earn from gold & options. So, I am learn from this incident, if wanted to become the top analyst, then is a must to conduct a comprehensive analysis to all the financial market, so that a bigger picture can puzzled in the financial market. 

而黄金呢?就一直连续涨到今天!所以,我相信外资真的好厉害,先拉KLCI 涨一点,部空KLCI期权, 然后利用这个月的题材 - BREXIT - 来杀个片甲不留,大赚黄金和期权。这次的事件让我领悟了一样东西,如果要成为一个顶尖的分析师,就必须要对所有的金融市场进行全面的分析,这样才能够拥有一个全球金融市场的大图像

















Tuesday, 14 June 2016

UEMS & MINHO Is Looks Black Too

We must respect the market. The experience of the past three days "disaster" is enough to destroy those rising stock. Especially, UEM SUNRISE-ing turn into dark cloud cover; even like MINHO with corporate activity announcement that can push one more wave up also couldn't escape unharmed.

Now, breakthrough from UEMS become fake signal and I predict will maintain low band sideways, while MINHO retracement to the support but once broken will having the same way as UEMS. Anyway, both forms have been destroyed, Market instability make the stock looks badly. Well, I believe no exception for most of the counter.


必须要尊重市场。经历了过去一连三天的“灾难”,足以让一些初升段趋势的个股,完完全全被摧毁。UEM SUNRISE 明显的从Sunrising马上变成乌云盖顶;就算是夹着一连串企业活动的MINHO,在主力欲再推多一个波段,也难逃一劫。

UEMS 如今的突破变假突破,预计会维持一段低档横盘,而MINHO 却即将回撤
到前波段高点,一旦跌破又会维持跟UEMS 一样的走势。无论如何,双双的形态都已经被破坏,所谓大盘不稳,地动山摇,相信大多数的个股也没有例外。







Monday, 13 June 2016

Monday Blue? Black?




Since 7 June 2016, a break through from sideways thought will having a short term uptrend. However, market sentiment is still lock into the two big event in this month.

Brexit
FED June Meeting

So, the market is given a very clear answer after few day, signal is turned into bearish, especially in the last trading day of last week while closing, the trend is return back to the shock interval. So to be exact, this should be Black Friday. Now, I predict it will fluctuate in the time frame until that two big event is clear, these also indicate investors choose to wait and see. Next, if trend is going up and break the resistance then perhaps will have a small bull, otherwise, challenge 1600 once support is broken, also means the right shoulder is formed gradually...

So, Escape?


自7/6/2016 做出了突破,原以为可以有一段小涨幅。然而,市场的情绪依然是锁在这个月份的两大事件

英国脱欧公投
美聯儲议息会议

结果连过几天的市场给了一个非常明确的答案,一个强烈的由多翻空,尤其是在上个星期最后一个交易日的收盘,直接将整个趋势打回到震荡区间内。所以,正确来说星期一不是黑色的,而应该是星期五才对。如今,我预测会波动在这个时间框内直到这两大事件明朗后才作出交代,间接上也表示了市场中的投资者做出了观望的选择。如果以后的发展是往上再次突破压力,那么也许还可以有多一段小行情;相反,往下跌破支撑那么就直接挑战1600 ,也就是右肩渐渐形成。。。





Wednesday, 8 June 2016

UEM SUNRISE-ing


Observed from weekly chart, a rebound is happen after a level of decline, then entering long-short combat zone, it is very difficult to find a direction within this range, so waiting is the only thing can be done; until breakthrough the resistance and a significant long signal is appears.

Today UEM SUNRISE breakout and stand steadily above the resistance line, long is established, resistance turn into support, I predict the first target price is 1.20 so far, and 1.15 is the next resistance. So, whether UEM SUNRISE is sunny now? Then let the market tell me the answer!


从周线可以看得见在大波段跌幅后,做了一个反弹就进入了多空交战区,通常在这个区间内都很困难找到投资的方向,而需要做的也就只有耐心的等待,毕竟耐心是一种美德;直到突破压力线,看见明显的多头讯号出现为止。

今天UEM SUNRISE突破而且又站稳压力线之上,多头确立,压力变支撑,目前预测的第一波涨幅大约1.20,而1.15 就是下一个压力。UEM SUNRISE是否从此阳光普照?就让市场告诉我答案吧!


Tuesday, 7 June 2016

TUNEPRO & PAVREIT Reviews


Is TUNEPRO Turn Weak? Since KLCI is turn strong today, TUNEPRO is breakout resistance at 1.50 finally. Now, resistance become support, as long as stabilized above support line, bullish will slowly formed. Currently, TUNEPRO trend is advantage to mid-long strategy, like I've mentioned before as long as the final support 1.25 is not breaking, then it will be fine. So, TA also can implement on investment strategy too.  

On the other hand, PAVREIT is one of the benefit from KLCI today. Since move above the neckline, then must stay steadily. So far I predict a small sideways will happen, if maintained above the neckline, then it high chances to take over record high.


Is TUNEPRO Turn Weak? 随着大盘今天的转强,TUNEPRO 也终于再次突破压力线1.50。现在压力变支撑,只要站稳在支撑线之上,一波多头就会慢慢的形成。目前,我认为以这样的走势是有利于对中长期策略,就如之前我有提过的,只要不跌破终极支撑1.25 就可以了。所以,技术分析也可以运用在投资策略当中。

另一方面,PAVREIT 也是其中受惠的一个。既然站得上颈线,就别下来。目前预估会有一段小横盘,如果能维持在颈线之上,那么就过前高的可能性就大副增加。





Monday, 6 June 2016

FOCUS LUMBER TA



As long as FOCUS LUMBER not stand above resistance line, it is still consider as bearish, be aware of 1.90 because once broken then straight away looking forward to second downtrend target price. If station above resistance, then resistance will become support, but still need a time to digest the big gap decline with volume. 

FOCUS LUMBER 一天站不上阻力线都还是空头居多,注意1.90 一旦跌破就直接看第二段跌幅。如果站的上,压力变支撑,但也会需要一段时间来回补带量跳空下杀的空间。

Sunday, 5 June 2016

My Views On The Future Trend of KAWAN




KAWAN make a breakthrough from triangle pattern at last Friday. So, like this kind of trend is a good chance to speculate when notice a reversal signal, so I predict 3.34 is possible in a short term. 

Now is very close to the first resistance line and anytime will turn down. Conversely, if wish to turn into bullish, then is a must to breakthrough the first resistance line at 3.26, next is to develop a consolidation zone for at least 2 month times to digest the head position, after that breakthrough 3.42 than only preliminary bull trend is formed.  

But, If observed from weekly chart, then a long term trend can be seen clearly. Even though after the consolidation zone, but it just construct a M head pattern only from weekly chart. Unless it breakthrough 4.00, or else it will just make a bigger head, which to trap more money from retailer. If according to my analysis, once the second uptrend target price is reached, that usually is a top price. Except, another QE is coming, otherwise the best way to digest a head position is to introduce a Big Polar Bear.

So, I think current trend is disadvantage for long term investment, however, short term maybe still can make some fast money. Anyway, regardless long term or short term, eye on support & watch your risk.


KAWAN在上周最后的一个交易日作出了三角收敛突破。
以技术分析的投机者,一旦看到翻转讯号后通常都会在下一两个交易日进场,等待的就是这样的突破,而这一波的涨幅预测可以到大约3.34。

目前已经很接近第一道阻力,随时都会转弯往下。反之,如果是要由空转多,就必须能突破第一道阻力,还要在大概3.26以上震荡一段至少两个月的时间以消化头部的压力,然后再突破3.42,那么初步的多头趋势才算可以形成。

如果从周线来看,就更清楚看得出长期走势的发展,就算可以渡过两个月的震荡期然后突破,但是对周线来说也只是在筑M头,除非最后可以突破4.00,要不然也只是在做出一个更大的头部,套更多的资金而已。如果以我的技术分析,一旦第二波涨幅出现后,计算出来的涨幅价位,通常都是头顶价位。除非,出现再一波的资金浪潮,不然消化头部最好的方法,就是出现一波空头调整。

所以,我认为长期投资在现在的这个趋势没有优势,相反,短期投资也许还可以赚多这个波段。无论如何,不管长期还是短期,看好支撑,看好风险。










Can AIRASIA Keep Flying?


Bullish trend is started when after a breakout with volume from consolidation zone (1), until around end of April, AIRASIA is slightly fall below it neckline, but it station back on the neckline after one or two trading days. So, this is the first strong reversal signal from from AIRASIA. At 26 May, a long red is fell below 2.16, but it recover immediately after next trading days and thus the second strong reversal signal is appear. So far, I predict 2.60 is possible, and short term support is 2.4, so a counter like this usually ending with a bighead pattern.

In operation, (1) is the best entry point, because a bull trend will come after breakthrough from consolidation zone. Then, (2) is the second entry point, as of a strong flip right after neckline will able to surpass previous high usually. 

Observe from monthly chart, I predict a long-term trend will be about one and the half year sideways, support is 2.185 and resistance is 2.80. In other words, if unfortunate fall below the support, then the situation will turn into bearish. Otherwise, AIRASIA is keep flying!
  

自多空交战后,进入盘整然后带量突破(1),就开始了多头行情。一直上升到大约4 月尾,出现了破颈线,然而隔了一两个交易日后就马上站回颈线之上,这个是AIRASIA走势第一个强势翻转。在26/05,一根长红跌破了2.16,但是隔天居然大量回补,第二个强势翻转就这样出现了。目前我预测的涨幅会到大约2.60,而短期支撑就在2.40,像这样走势的股票,通常都是以一个大头部来做结尾,要不然大股东又怎么出货呢?

在操作上,(1)是买入最佳时间点,盘整后带量突破往往后面看到的都是一波多头趋势。
然后 (2) 就是第二时间点,在颈线上做强势翻转,后面都会越过前高。

从月线来观察,我预测长期走势将会是一个大约一年半的横盘震荡,支撑就在2.18,而2.80会是一个大阻力。换句话说,2.18将会是这个趋势的支撑,如果不幸跌破支撑,那么这个形势就会由盘转空。相反,AIRASIA就持续飞行!








Friday, 3 June 2016

PADINI & IVORY Still Continue The Path To Glorious?



Since I wrote Is PADINI Raising or Fallen? last week, I expect a signal shall able to capture  from PADINI, then a fake signal is shown from PADINI in the last trading day at the same week. Now the trend is turned into sideways, started a period of about 11 trading days of horizontal price movement,within range 2.24 - 2.40. If luckily fall below 2.24 within these few trading days, then it will turn into bearish; conversely, if breakout after that, then the trend will turn into much more stronger, 2.80 will be reachable.

Also, IVORY have a false break in 27 May too at the last trading day in the same week. However, 2016 Q4 financial report is release after 2 trading day, and showing it net profit is decline significantly, directly destroy the triangle pattern. Now, IVORY is having the same trend too which entering a horizontal price movement, and not allow to fall below the support within about 10 trading days, otherwise it will turn into bearish. Conversely, it will turn strong.

Coincidence these two counter is having horizontal price movement with almost the same time frame instead of quick fall, I just guess maybe these two counter still have the shadow of big player, and they are trying to drag it until mid of June for either the next uptrend or stock clearing by following the background of 

Brexit
FED June Meeting 


自在上个周写了Is PADINI Raising or Fallen? 我预期PADINI应该会作出表态,而PADINI就在最后的交易日出现了假突破以作为那一周的结尾。如今的走势由多转盘,进入了为期大约11个交易日的高档震荡,区间在于2.24 - 2.40。如果在这期间内不幸跌破2.24, 趋势就会由盘转空;相反,如果能够撑得过又或突破成功,那么走势就会转成强势结构,而2.80 就指日可待。

同样在27/05,IVORY 也出现了假突破,一根长红就直接收在那一周的最后交易日。然而,在两个交易日后发布的2016 Q4 财报显示了net profit 呈现衰退,才直接将小三角收敛破坏然后转入横盘。如今,也同样的进入了一个震荡区间,支撑在大约10个交易日内是不能被跌破,不然走势就会由盘转空。反之,走势就会由盘转强。



巧合的是在这里发现了这两个股目前都是进入了大约相同时间框的震荡区间而并没有选择直接下杀了事。这也许是大户们的筹码还在这两档股票中,就是利用时间拖到这个六月中旬的两件大事来换取下一段的涨幅或者出货。

英国脱欧公投
美聯儲议息会议
 

 


Wednesday, 1 June 2016

MINHO The Twin of LIIHEN



Although MINHO recent financial report is not as good as expected, due to net profit decline about 32% if compare to same quarter last year. However, MINHO recent trend is highly correlative with LIIHEN, and is a counter that affected by USD/MYR forecast trend, which refer from my previous post - What Next for Ringgit

So, from technical analysis point of view, it surpass previous high, currently my target price is about 1.74 and set the support at 1.46. Well, whether the trend is develop as per my guess, open market will tell me the answer.

虽然MINHO 最近的财报有点不理想,因为跟去年同期相比net profit 滑落了大约32%。然而,近期的走势非常贴近LIIHEN,也是一个被马币预期走势而影响的股票。参考之前的 What Next for Ringgit

从技术分析上,突破了前高,目前我预计波段新高大约在1.74,而支撑就设在1.46。当然,最后的走势能否如我预期,那就让市场告诉我答案吧!





What If SUPERMAX Go Below 3.00?

 I know this is a bit crazy... and definitely not a majority favourite... But I will let market to slap my face.