Sunday, 22 May 2016

Crude Oil - My Analysis, Operation, and Views

Since Brent Oil fall below the neckline at 01/09/2014 end up the big triangle pattern and thus started it bearish trend. From that moment, I started to monitor and estimate the downtrend target price.

自Brent Oil 在01/09/2014 跌破颈线,这个做了大约三年半的大三角收敛头部正式告终也就因此进入一个长空趋势,而我就开始追踪和计算跌幅希望可以捉到原油这一波跌幅的低点。

Beginning in mid January 2016, I focus more closely by monitoring Brent Oil trend everyday, because it reached the second band of downtrend target price range from the head pattern. 2016 Jan 21 and 22, an obvious rebound signal is appear respectively, then I bought DAYANG while pull back in 25th, but rebound the next day, so I believe a bullish trend started. Then, I bought DELEUM. At the end, Brent Oil is rose all the way to about 42, is 50% increase, and also led to a number of popular O&G stock toward bullish in KLSE.

However, I decide to arbitrage DELEUM and reduce number of DAYANG when this uptrend is fail to breakout the second support line. But, top up DAYANG again when Brent Oil is rebound near the first support line because I foresee Brent Oil will reach at least 50 at that moment. However, DAYANG trend is goes differently with crude oil since after the second support line, also DAYANG is fall below it support too, so I decide to clear all DAYANG, so in total profit for DELEUM and DAYANG is about 23% and 18% respectively.

At the same time, KLSE ended it two and the half month uptrend, and started go differently with Brent Oil, even though STI and HSI too. So, I started to thinking if good news from Brent Oil can't even pull up KLSE, then what others factor can? Or, I think from different angle, what make crude oil rose in second wave? Demand is coming back? Or political factor?

2016 一月中旬开始,我便每一天都有关注Brent Oil 的走势,毕竟已经到达了第二波段头部跌幅和波段跌幅的价位区间。在2016 一月份的21 和22 号分别见到了明显的反弹,我便买进了DAYANG。虽然在25 号拉回,可是隔天又反弹,相信那就是Brent Oil 多头的开始,于是我又买进了DELEUM。果然,这一波Brent Oil 就一路涨到大约42,足足50%的涨幅,也带动了一些热门的汽油股。

然而,这一波的上涨却突破不了第二道支撑线时,我便套现了DELEUM 和减码了DAYANG。
当Brent Oil 在第一道支撑线作出反弹时,我又开始加码DAYANG,因为这时我预计这波Brent Oil 行情可以涨到至少50。然而,自Brent Oil 突破第二道支撑线时,DAYANG 的走势便开始和原油分离,而且DAYANG也开始跌破了支撑,这时候我便出清了所有DAYANG 的股票,总计DAYANG 和DELEUM 的利润大约23% 和18%。

同时,KLSE 也宣告结束了这两个月半的上涨趋势,也开始与Brent Oil 背离,就连STI和HSI 都是相同。在这里,我不禁开始思考,如果连Brent Oil 的利多都拉动不起KLSE, 那么还有什么因素可以拉动的起?又或则从另外的一个角度来看,到底原油第二波的上涨是基于需求复苏?还是政治因素?

As for Brent Oil future trend should be go side-way above the second support line as long as not fall below the support then 53.28 will be the big resistance line.

Below is WTI, should able go up to 50 above as long as the short term uptrend line is not broken, then will follow the same way with Brent Oil to having a long term adjustment.
For USO, 11.41 is the support, if breakout 12.06 then the next challenge is 13.09.

至于Brent Oil 以后的走势,应该会在第二道支撑以上横盘发展(只要不破支撑),大概53.28 会是它的大阻力。

以下是WTI,只要不上升趋势不被破坏,应该可以看到50 以上,然后会跟Brent Oil 一样来个长期的盘整。
USO 目前支撑是11.41, 如果能突破12.06 就往13.09 挑战。

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