Monday, 30 May 2016

KAWAN Mean Friendship Forever?

30 May, KAWAN release 2016 Q1 financial report, net profit slump 21% and 37% if compare to last year same quarter and previous quarter respectively. This is never been happen before in the past 3 year, but today this report is a big disappointment for investor, lead toward a big drop with gap and closing at 3.00. But, some clues can be found from technical analysis, a month ago, neckline is broken, and bearish is started. In other words, insider is knew that the coming financial report 2016 Q1 is doesn't look good in a month earlier, at almost the same time I've shared the trending chart too, and estimate first downtrend target price at 3.00.

Now, my views is either KAWAN will have a short sideways between 2.69 - 2.98 roughly to digest the current bad news, or heading to second downtrend target price which is at 2.50, then make a small rebound after that. If unluckily bought at head side, but thinking to leverage down, maybe these two price can be the reference so far. So KAWAN mean friendship forever? for retailer yes, but for big player no. :-)

5月30号KAWAN 推出了2016 Q1 的财报,跟去年同期比较net profit 直接下滑21%,而跟上个季度比较下滑37%。这个状况是在过去的 3 年都不成发生过,但是今天这个让投资者大失所望的财报,导致跳空下杀closing 在3.0。但是,从技术分析中是可以看出一些端倪,在一个月前,颈线就已经宣布跌破了,此时结束了多头,同时也迎来了空头,换句话说,内行人比外行人早在一个月前已经知道2016 Q1 的财报是长成什么摸样,我也大约在当时分享了这个走势图,测出第一段跌幅在3.0。

我目前的看法是如果KAWAN 还有些底气,大概会在2.69 - 2.98 区间做一个横盘震荡以消化目前的坏消息;不然,就继续走空到第二段跌幅2.5,然后在附近做一个小反弹。如果是不幸套在头部区,又想要leverage down,也许这两个价位可以作为目前的参考,可是没有保障会否还有更低点。总的来说,KAWAN mean friendship forever? 对散户来说是,但是对大户来说不是。:-)

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 Today is the first post without any chart... Just because of I realised the important of timing...