KAWAN make a breakthrough from triangle pattern at last Friday. So, like this kind of trend is a good chance to speculate when notice a reversal signal, so I predict 3.34 is possible in a short term.
Now is very close to the first resistance line and anytime will turn down. Conversely, if wish to turn into bullish, then is a must to breakthrough the first resistance line at 3.26, next is to develop a consolidation zone for at least 2 month times to digest the head position, after that breakthrough 3.42 than only preliminary bull trend is formed.
But, If observed from weekly chart, then a long term trend can be seen clearly. Even though after the consolidation zone, but it just construct a M head pattern only from weekly chart. Unless it breakthrough 4.00, or else it will just make a bigger head, which to trap more money from retailer. If according to my analysis, once the second uptrend target price is reached, that usually is a top price. Except, another QE is coming, otherwise the best way to digest a head position is to introduce a Big Polar Bear.
So, I think current trend is disadvantage for long term investment, however, short term maybe still can make some fast money. Anyway, regardless long term or short term, eye on support & watch your risk.
KAWAN在上周最后的一个交易日作出了三角收敛突破。
以技术分析的投机者，一旦看到翻转讯号后通常都会在下一两个交易日进场，等待的就是这样的突破，而这一波的涨幅预测可以到大约3.34。
目前已经很接近第一道阻力，随时都会转弯往下。反之，如果是要由空转多，就必须能突破第一道阻力，还要在大概3.26以上震荡一段至少两个月的时间以消化头部的压力，然后再突破3.42，那么初步的多头趋势才算可以形成。
如果从周线来看，就更清楚看得出长期走势的发展，就算可以渡过两个月的震荡期然后突破，但是对周线来说也只是在筑M头，除非最后可以突破4.00，要不然也只是在做出一个更大的头部，套更多的资金而已。如果以我的技术分析，一旦第二波涨幅出现后，计算出来的涨幅价位，通常都是头顶价位。除非，出现再一波的资金浪潮，不然消化头部最好的方法，就是出现一波空头调整。
所以，我认为长期投资在现在的这个趋势没有优势，相反，短期投资也许还可以赚多这个波段。无论如何，不管长期还是短期，看好支撑，看好风险。
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