Monday, 4 July 2016

Will Crude Oil and Gold Hint The FED Decision?

Since about a month ago after Crude Oil - My Analysis, Operation, and Views, Brent Oil is station above 50USD and maintain sideways above the second support line. Same for WTI also reached my target price and then do sideways.

自從在我大概一個月前對油價的看法後 - Crude Oil - My Analysis, Operation, and ViewsBrent Oil 就如預期的站上50USD,而且還在第二支撐線上做橫盤走勢。同樣的,WTI也到達了波段漲幅,然後做橫盤整理。

Now, Crude Oil is going to form a triangle pattern, go up or down? I think we will able to know at around mid of July, these also inline with the FED interest rate policy meeting in July as well. All the while, Inflation has been determined interest rate policy, while crude oil affects inflation and lastly all about the demand and supply. But, Operation Twist & QE is implemented since few years ago, plus extreme low/negative interest rate just to push inflation, thus the impact is become interest rate policy affects crude oil price. Moreover, Gold Spot is keep challenge previous high even since BREXIT, which I can see the high risk awareness is getting important. Through Crude Oil & Gold Spot trend, I guess the market is preparing for the next coming FED interest rate policy meeting. So, are you ready?

如今原油的走勢逐漸走向三角收斂,往上漲還是往下跌?我预计原油大概會在7月中旬左右表態,也配合了FED 在7 月的利率政策会议,因为一直以来通货膨胀决定了利率政策,而原油影响了通货膨胀,最后供需关系影响了原油;但是这几年来的逆向操作,大量宽松,为了拉动通货膨胀而不惜实行底/负利率,变成利率政策影响了原油走势。另外,黄金自从Brexit后的走势也不断的挑战前高,避险的意识非常重;原油,黄金的走势,我猜测市场正在为即将到来的FED 利率政策会议而做准备,你呢?

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 Today is the first post without any chart... Just because of I realised the important of timing...